RealClearPolitics makes, well, clear what was hinted at in yesterday’s Gallup Daily Poll — the McCain/Palin bounce is over and the Presidential race is once again moving in Barack Obama’s favor.
Just check out the latest polls:
And the trend that’s developed:
So what’s the explanation for what is essentially, for the moment at least, a return to the status quo pre-convention ?
As James Joyner notes, events have intruded:
This race has always been the Democrats’ to lose. The country is tired of Bush, tired of the war in Iraq, and tired of a sagging economy. Rightly or wrongly, the party of the incumbent president gets blamed for these things.
For a brief moment, it looked like events had turned in McCain’s favor. Namely, there’s now a widespread sense that the Surge — which he supported, indeed, led the call for, and his opponent fought — was a success and that we’re on the verge of salvaging something close enough to victory in Iraq.
The failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of AIG, though, have turned the focus back to the economy. That’s almost always an advantage for Democrats, since they’re the party that favors governmental intervention. It’s doubly so in years when Republicans occupy the White House.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: If the election is decided on the economy, Obama wins, perhaps easily. If it’s decided on national security issues, McCain may pull it off. It’s looking increasingly likely that it’ll be the former.
Also playing in Obama’s favor is the fact that Bush Adminisraion has, in stepping in to bail out Bear Sterns, Fannie Mae and Freddic Mac, Lehman Brothers, and AIG, done pretty much the same thing Democratic Administration would do. It’s hard for Republicans to make a credible case for the free market when their President is governing like a socialist.
