Below The Beltway

If this poll is accurate and not an outlier, it could indicate a significant change in the election:

Matching a trend seen in national polling, Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in Virginia over the past week as the Wall Street financial crunch has put economic concerns front and center.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.

The current poll marks the first time that either candidate has had more than a two-point advantage in Virginia since May. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans.

Just nine percent (9%) of Virginia voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 57% say it is in poor shape. Just five percent (5%) say the economy is getting better; 83% say it is getting worse.

(…)

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Virginia voters name the economy as the top issue of Election 2008.
Overall, 50% trust Obama more when it comes to the economy while 44% have more confidence in McCain.

There are very few scenarios I’ve seen that would allow McCain to win the election without holding on to Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, and things aren’t looking good in the Buckeye State either:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio finds John McCain with 47% of the vote while Barack Obama picks up 46%. That’s a slippage of three percentage points for McCain since Sunday night. In four previous surveys conducted over the past month, McCain has held an advantage ranging from three to seven points.

Similar trends have been found nationally as the recent economic crisis has unfolded: Support for McCain has declined while Obama’s totals remain steady.

Just eight percent (8%) of Ohio voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent while 54% say it’s poor. Only three percent (3%) say it’s getting better while 54% say it’s heading in the opposite direction.

Thirty-five percent (35%) say the housing market will get better within a year, including four percent (4%) who say it’s already getting better. However, 37% say there’s no end in sight to the housing crunch.

As the economy continues to struggle, 64% of Ohio voters say creating economic growth is more important than reducing the income gap between rich and poor. This is similar to the national average. Sixty-eight percent (68%) believe that McCain is more interested in creating growth while 64% believe Obama is more interested in reducing the gap between rich and poor.

And Florida, which was once firmly in McCain’s corner, is now a toss-up as well:

The race for Florida’s Electoral College votes is closer now than it was just a few days ago. Consistent with a pattern found in national polls and in several other state polls, John McCain has lost ground in the Sunshine State, but support for Barack Obama hasn’t increased.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain on top 48% to 47% (see crosstabs). The previous poll, conducted Sunday night, showed McCain on top 51% to 46%.

If you lost count, that’s 60 Electoral Votes from states that have gone Republican in each of the last two elections, if not longer, that are now up for grabs and leaning in Obama’s direction.

If I was McCain, I’d be worried.