Below The Beltway

This week’s round of Fox News/Rasmussen battleground polls are out, and the news isn’t all that good for the McCain campaign, mostly because the race is now a dead heat in three states where he had been leading, and Obama has picked up steam in a fourth.

Florida decided the 2000 Presidential Election and McCain had been leading there as recently as a week ago, now it’s a dead heat:

The race for Florida is now a dead heat, with Barack Obama and John McCain tied with 47% each, according to a new Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Only five percent (5%) remain undecided.

In a survey released a week ago, McCain had a five-point lead. Five days ago he was ahead by just one, as Florida voters like many others around the country reacted to the country’s growing economic problems.

And now, he’s lost the lead and given Obama an opportunity to accomplish what neither Al Gore nor John Kerry could do — win Florida.

In Ohio, which played the role of Florida in 2004, McCain has also lost what once looked like a fairly solid lead:

In Ohio, John McCain and Barack Obama are locked in a competitive race that can’t get much closer.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State finds McCain with 48% of the vote, Obama with 47%, and another 4% of voters undecided. Those results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey from the middle of last week. One week ago, the previous Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found McCain enjoying a 50% to 46% advantage.

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In Ohio, 55% have a favorable opinion of McCain while 52% say the same about Obama.

McCain leads by eleven among white voters in the state but trails 81% to 15% among all other voters. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain has the edge among older voters. Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while McCain leads among those with higher incomes

Colorado has been a close state for months, but it now seems to be moving back toward Obama:

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado finds Barack Obama attracting 49% of the vote while John McCain earns 48%.

A week ago, a Rasmussen Reports survey found Obama with a three-point advantage. Two weeks ago, McCain had a two-point advantage in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll.

The two candidates have been within three points for five consecutive polls, confirming Colorado’s status as a competitive swing state. It is also a very important state in this year’s Electoral College calculations. In many scenarios, if Obama can move this state from the Republican to the Democratic column, that will be enough to win the White House.

Obama now leads by 10 among women but trails by 11 among men. McCain leads by five among white voters but trails by more than a two-to-one margin among all other voters in the state.

Among those who say that economic issues are most important, Obama leads by a 67% to 30% margin. Among those who say national security issues are the highest priority, McCain leads 77% to 22% ….. The good news for Obama is that 47% of voters consider economic issues as most important while just 24% say the same about national security.

Finally, in Pennsylvania, where he had trouble during April’s Democratic Primary, Obama has opened a substantial lead:

Barack Obama continues to widen his lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania, where the Democrat is now ahead 50% to 42% in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Just three days ago Obama was ahead by four. Two weeks ago the race was tied in the Keystone State.

The most interesting thing about Pennsylvania is that two third-party candidates may play a large role in who wins it’s 21 Electoral Votes:

Three percent (3%) of Pennsylvania voters support Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, and two percent (2%) back Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr. That is the highest level of third party support found in any battleground state.

While the numbers in each of these crucial states remain close (with the exception of Pennsylvania), the trend is clearly in Obama’s favor:

Regardless of the timing and the cause, however, the overriding trend from the past week is a shift in the battleground states that favors Obama.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· In all states, Obama gained ground among unaffiliated voters. While the sample sizes in each state are small and the shifts often modest, the consistency of the result is worth noting.

· Obama’s favorable ratings are up slightly in all five states.

· Favorables for McCain are up slightly in three states (Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania) and down slightly in two (Ohio, Virginia).

· The number saying that they would not be comfortable with Obama as President fell in all five states. In all five, the number expressing such discomfort is at the lowest level since tracking began on September 7.

· The number not comfortable with McCain as President increased by three percentage points in Florida, was unchanged in Virginia, and fell very slightly in the other states.

· The number of undecided voters increased by two percentage points each in Florida and Ohio.

· The number supporting third party candidates increased from 2% to 5% in Pennsylvania.

· Neither candidate attracts more than 50% of the vote in any of the battleground states, although Obama is right at the 50% mark in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

· When it comes to who voters would trust with the toughest decision of their life, Obama gained ground in three states and there was no net change in Colorado or Pennsylvania. However, Obama had already gained ground on this question a week ago in Pennsylvania.

If this continues, then we could be seeing the beginning of an Obama break out.