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Tuesday Tracking Poll Update

by @ 3:30 pm on September 30, 2008. Filed under 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics

With only two days to do until the Vice-Presidential debate, the Obama/Biden ticket is maintaining a solid lead over John McCain and Sarah Palin.

In the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama is above 50% for the first time, with a six-point lead:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday—the first update with results based entirely upon interviews conducted following the first Presidential Debate–shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama opened a five-point lead heading into Friday’s debate and has retained a five or six point edge every day since (see trends).

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%. However, 40% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 26% have a Very Unfavorable view. The comparable numbers for McCain are 26% Very Favorable and 24% Very Unfavorable.

Forty-six percent (46%) now say that Obama is too inexperienced to be President, 29% say McCain is too old (see trends).

In the Gallup Daily tracking poll, Obama has slipped a point from yesterday but continues to maintain a lead:

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama continues to hold a significant lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, 49% to 43%.

This is based on interviewing conducted Sept. 27-29, spanning an intense period of negotiations over an historical financial recovery package in Congress on Friday and Saturday, news of a tentative agreement on the package on Sunday, and then collapse of the bill when it came to the House floor on Monday. It also represents the first report including three full days of tracking following Friday night’s presidential debate.

Today’s results mark the fourth straight day Obama has held a five percentage point or better lead over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and two full weeks since McCain last had any advantage over Obama in national voter preferences. McCain held a slim lead over Obama for several days following the Republican National Convention in early September, but that quickly evaporated with the Wall Street financial crisis that began with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

While some might find it significance that, yet again, Obama has failed to cross the 50-percent threshold in this particular poll, Gallup notes that this may not mean anything at this point in the race:

Gallup’s historical trial heat trends show that the winners in 1988, 2000 — both years with minimal third party candidate support suppressing the vote for the major party candidates — rarely attained 50% or greater support from registered voters prior to Gallup’s final pre-election poll.

Voter support for George W. Bush only once exceeded 50% in his 2004 campaign against John Kerry, that being 53% in mid-September. In 1988, George H.W. Bush reached or surpassed the 50% mark once at the very beginning and then not again until the last two weeks of the campaign.

What will be very interesting to see over the next several days is what impact, if any, the collapse of the bailout deal will have on the Presidential race.

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