At least one poll is showing a massive shift in public opinion in favor of Barack Obama in three key swing states:
Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
* Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
* Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
* Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate.Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
More than 84 percent of voters in each state say the debate did not change their mind. But by margins of 13 to 17 percent, voters in each state say Obama did a better job in the debate. And by margins of 15 to 27 percent, independent voters in each state say Obama won.
“It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Here are the basics for each of these polls:
From September 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
* 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
* 1,203 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
* 1,138 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.From September 27 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
* 836 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent;
* 825 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent;
* 832 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
So far, we haven’t seen anything approaching a shift like this in any of these states, so it remains to be seen if this is an outlier, or a sign of something significant.
Update: Just as I was about to publish this, CNN/Time released a set of battleground state polls that also show Obama beginning to take a commanding lead:
ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) — Polls in five crucial battleground states in the race for the White House released Wednesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains.
The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. polls of likely voters in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia suggest a shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.
First, Florida — 27 Electoral Votes:
In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain.
The last CNN poll taken in Florida two weeks ago showed the race for the state’s 27 electoral votes tied at 48 percent apiece among registered voters.
A new CNN poll of polls in Florida, also out Wednesday, has Obama leading McCain by 5 points. The CNN poll of polls is an average of the new CNN poll and other new state polls.
Next, Minnesota — 10 Electoral Votes:
Obama’s also making gains over McCain in Minnesota, the state in which the Republican convention was held a month ago. Fifty-four percent of those questioned are backing Obama, with 43 percent supporting McCain, R-Arizona. That 11-point lead is much larger than the 2-point advantage Obama had in the last CNN poll taken in Minnesota a month ago.
Missouri — 11 Electoral Votes:
It’s a similar story in Missouri, where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. That’s a gain for Obama, who was down 5 points to McCain in CNN’s last poll in Missouri, taken three weeks ago. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by 1 point.
Nevada — 5 Electoral Votes:
The poll also indicates Obama has a 4-point lead over McCain in Nevada, 51- 47 percent. CNN’s last survey in Nevada, taken in late August, had McCain up slightly. A new American Research Group poll in Nevada puts McCain ahead by 2 points.
And, I’ve already noted that the CNN/Time poll provides further evidence that Virginia is likely to go Democratic in a Presidential race for the first time since 1964.
None of this is good news for McCain.
