Remember what I said last month about the national polls signaling a real sea-change in the Presidential race ?
Well, that’s even more true when we look at where those polls are three weeks later.
Here’s the RealClearPolitics Average:
And here’s a chart showing where that average has gone:
As the economy has soured and the sense of crisis, as misplaced as it might be, increased, whatever benefit that John McCain received from the Republican National Convention and the selection of Sarah Palin have disappeared. More importantly, this time we really are seeing a change from the way this race had gone since the primaries ended. Back in June, July, and August — and even immediately after the convention — the race was essentially tied and neither candidate was consistently polling outside of the margin of error.
That isn’t the case anymore. Momentum has shifted in Obama’s favor to the point where this may well be his race to lose, rather than McCain’s to win. Absent some dramatic changes over the next four weeks, I think John McCain’s options are running out.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:29 pm
[...] looking at these numbers, the Intrade contracts, and the national polls, there is one inescapable conclusion —- as of today, Barack Obama is winning the race for the [...]
October 1st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
[...] in part on the latest polls, the electoral college projections, and Intrade, and in part on a few wild-assed guesses, [...]
October 15th, 2008 at 10:23 am
[...] debate, and its not looking good for John McCain. Any hope that the McCain camp may have had that the trend toward Obama that was reflected in the polls two weeks ago would turn around as they have in the past is clearly gone, and they find themselves at a point [...]
October 24th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
’m so tired of the Electoral College and the two party system. Once this election is over, I intend to devote a lot of my time and energy to efforts to abolish both. When did the U.S. become a bunch of red and blue states? How come my vote (as a Californian) hasn’t counted in 30 years? Nobody campaigns in California, New York, Texas, Illinois … those states are already decided. Why is it that the most important voters are in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico and Indiana? Seems a bit backwards, doesn’t it?
See my “Know More” blog at http://www.jeremygoodell.com. The other day I posted an entry about the Electoral College that points out a bit of a loophole that could be exploited to win an election.