It’s beginning to look a lot like a new phase of the Presidential race, one that is very favorable to Barack Obama.
In the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama is maintaining a six-point lead over McCain:
After several weeks of volatility surrounding the conventions and initial reaction to the Wall Street debacle, the race for the White House appears to have entered a new phase of stability. At the same time, investor confidence in the economy has fallen to new record lows.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday is unchanged from the day before with Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the sixth straight day that Obama has been at 50% or 51%, the sixth straight day that McCain has been at 44% or 45%, and the sixth straight day the Obama has enjoyed a five or six point lead (see trends).
The biggest reason Obama is in the lead right now is the fact that voters trust him more than McCain on economic issues:
Obama is now trusted more on economic issues by 51% of voters, McCain by 42%. That’s the biggest advantage either candidate has enjoyed on this issue during Election 2008 and the first time either candidate has been trusted more by a majority of voters (see crosstabs, trends). This comes at a time when 48% of voters say that the economy is the top issue while just 20% say that national security is the highest priority. Obama has nearly eliminated McCain’s advantage on national security issues and the Democrat is now trusted more than McCain on ten other key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.
All of which seems to reinforce the idea that the only choice McCain has at this point in the race is to do decidedly negative in the hope that he can create doubts about his opponent and turn those numbers around.
The Gallup Daily tracking poll, on the other hand, shows a slight narrowing of the race and possible indications that we may still be in the retreat-and-advance pattern we were in during the summer:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of registered voters finds Barack Obama at 48%, and John McCain at 44%, marking a slight narrowing of the race from the eight percentage point margin Obama held earlier this week.
The latest results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 28-30, a time period in which the American public watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average seesaw between a 700+ point loss and a 400+ point gain on Monday and Tuesday, while attempts by Congress to pass some type of legislation dealing with the financial crisis continued.
Barack Obama has moved to an eight point or higher lead several times since June, including after his foreign trip in July, after the Democratic National Convention, and more recently late last week. In each instance Obama was unable to sustain his lead, and John McCain was able to narrow the gap, as is happening now - to, at least, a modest degree. In addition to continuing action on the part of the Senate and Congress on a financial rescue bill, Thursday’s vice presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden could potentially have an effect on the horserace.
In addition to the tracking polls, there are three new national polls out that continue to show Obama with a lead. In the new Time Magazine poll, Obama has a seven-point lead over McCain. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, he has a four point lead with signs that the race has actually tightened a little since Friday’s debate. And, a new Pew Research poll gives Obama a six point lead. Most significantly, though, is the fact that there isn’t a single national poll out there that doesn’t show Barack Obama in the lead.
