The iniative aimed at overturning the California Supreme Court’s decision authorizing gay marriage appears to be headed for defeat in November:
LOS ANGELES — Backers of a referendum to ban same-sex marriage in California are winning the fundraising race, but analysts and public polls suggest that voter sentiment appears to be turning against them.
The main backer of Proposition 8, which would amend California’s constitution by defining marriage as a union “between a man and a woman,” has raised close to $18 million, said campaign manager Frank Schubert. By comparison, the main group opposing the ban has raised just over $14 million, said Geoff Kors, spokesman for the No on 8 campaign.
But according to a Field Poll released Sept. 18, 38 percent of likely voters backed the initiative, while 55 percent opposed it. Polls released shortly after the California Supreme Court ruled in May that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry found that voters were nearly equally divided on the issue at that point, polls showed.
Political analysts who earlier considered the outcome uncertain now say the foes of the ban are taking the lead, bolstered by overwhelming support from young voters, effective television ads and history — most initiatives lose.
“The polling we’ve seen and the demographics certainly seem to show there is an advantage to the ‘no’ side,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist and media consultant. “And the voters, as is often the case in California, take a look at an initiative and find flaws in it. That’s why 75 percent of initiatives in the state fail.”
Given the fact that the vote in California is likely to be heavily Democratic, I would expect this initiative to go down to defeat.
