We won’t start seeing any sign of an impact on the polls from last night’s Vice-Presidential debate until tomorrow at the earliest, but for the moment it looks like the race is still moving in Barack Obama’s favor.
In the Rasmussen poll, Obama has a seven-point lead today and has maintained at 50% or greater for more than a week now:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday again shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. For each of the past eight days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45% (see trends). New polling shows Obama pulling away in New Hampshire and opening a growing lead in the Electoral College projections.
Nationally, the number of voters who believe the country is heading in the right direction has fallen to 10%. That’s down dramatically from the already low level of 24% just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the recent Wall Street debacle. Eighty-six percent (86%) now say that the nation has gotten off on the wrong track.
Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, McCain by 52% (see trends). Forty-five percent (45%) believe taxes will go up if Obama is elected while 24% say the same about a McCain victory (see crosstabs).
More importantly, Rasmussen shows Obama leading in the Electoral College:
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 217 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 264-185 (see Quick Campaign Overview). There are currently six states in the Toss-Up category—Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama were to win all the states that are currently leaning in his direction, he would need to win only one of those six toss-up states to become the nation’s next President.
In the Gallup Daily tracking poll, Obama has picked up ground since yesterday and holds a seven point lead:
PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 has Barack Obama leading John McCain by seven percentage points, 49% to 42%.
Obama has held a statistically significant lead over McCain for each of the past seven days, ranging from four to eight points.
(…)
The pattern of voter preferences in September — with McCain’s post-Republican convention lead slipping away after the extraordinary Wall Street failures that began in mid-September, and Obama’s lead expanding to as much as eight points — suggests that Obama has benefited from Americans’ intensified economic anxiety during this period. Obama’s advantage on this issue was evident in Gallup’s post-presidential debate polling on Sept. 27, when the poll found Obama receiving much better scores from debate watchers for his performance on the economy than McCain.
The troubling new jobs report will most likely only reinforce, if not deepen, Americans’ economic concern in the coming days. McCain and Obama’s presidential debate this Tuesday could thus prove to be a critical opportunity for Obama to either cement his advantage on the economy, or for McCain to turn it around.
Time is running out for McCain.
October 24th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
[...] weeks ago, I noted that time running was out for John McCain, while the closing bell won’t officially sound until the polls close on Election Day, I think [...]