The Politico’s Mike Allen says that John McCain’s fate may depend on what happens in three states:
ST. LOUIS — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.
Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.
“Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”
McCain’s political director, Mike DuHaime, told reporters on a conference call three hours before debate time that the campaign plans an “aggressive” front in Maine, a solidly Democratic state that gets virtually no attention in presidential races.
The sudden attention to Maine, which is getting some of the staff McCain is moving out of Michigan, reflects what a squeaker McCain expects.
So far at least, things aren’t looking good for McCain in any of them.
Pennsylvania was once a state where it looked like McCain might have a shot given Obama’s inability to connect with voters there during the April Democratic Primary and his dismissal of voters in the rural part of the state as “bitter”, but Obama has pulled ahead in recent weeks and now has a comfortable lead outside the margin of error:
The same is true of Wisconsin:
And Minnesota:
The math isn’t looking good right now for McCain.
