Below The Beltway

For good reason, the Virginia GOP is worried that John McCain could be the first Republican Presidential candidate to lose the Old Dominion since Barry Goldwater:

Virginia Republicans are warning that John McCain’s prospects for winning a state that has been in the GOP column in every presidential election since 1964 could be in jeopardy. With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there, some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed.

The two best indicators of which states the campaigns are serious about – time and money – tell the story.

Since wrapping up the Democratic nomination in June, Obama, his wife, Michelle, and his running mate Joe Biden have visited the commonwealth a combined 12 times. The candidate himself was in the Tidewater city of Newport News Saturday.

Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.

Together, McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, have held just one campaign event in Virginia. And the campaign has taken its ads off the pricey Washington, D.C. network affiliates that reach into the entire swath of the Northern Virginia, the commonwealth’s most populous region.

“I think [McCain] needs to get here,” said Rep. Tom Davis, a longtime member of Congress who represents a Northern Virginia district. “I think they’ve got to pay more attention.”

And many Virginia Republicans seem to think that there hasn’t been enough attention paid to their state by the national campaign:

Longtime Virginia operatives are more outspoken, grumbling that McCain is now having to play catch up.

“He didn’t take threat seriously soon enough,” said one Richmond-based GOP strategist in the state, noting that McCain had the nomination wrapped up in early March but didn’t have staff or infrastructure in Virginia until July. “One public visit since securing the nomination and I can’t tell you one significant surrogate who has come.”

It’s puzzling because McCain’s campaign is based in Arlington, Va., and the senator lives there when he’s at his headquarters or across the river in his Senate office. Yet whenever he’s back in the area he never ventures beyond the office and condo-filled Crystal City neighborhood to more politically competitive communities nearby where he could get extensive local media coverage by just dropping by a diner.

“He, not she, needs to return to northern Virginia,” said a veteran GOP operative from the region about the GOP ticket. “That’s where he needs to perform, and where he can. He can get a lot of Mark Warner voters, but he needs to show the ticket-splitting centrists in voter-rich Fairfax and Loudoun [counties] some love and understanding.”

And they’d better hurry. Last week three new polls from Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, and CNN all showed Barack Obama with a statistically significant lead in Virginia, and, with the exception of what may be outliers, all the other polls are showing the same thing.

Can McCain still win Virginia ? Yes, but time is running out.