On the eve of the second Presidential debate, four new national polls show Barack Obama continuing to hold a lead over John McCain, albeit by differing margins.
First, the new CNN/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Obama ahead of McCain by eight points:
NASHVILLE, Tennessee (CNN) — A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country’s financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public’s perception of McCain’s running mate could be contributing to Obama’s gains.
Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.
That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September.
Monday evening’s CNN national Poll of Polls — incorporating our new CNN survey, as well as new tracking numbers from Gallup and Hotline taken October 3-5 — shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points — at 49 to 43 percent.
Next, a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Obama ahead by six:
NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Fueled in part by the candidates’ responses to the current economic crisis — as well as their performances at the first debates — Barack Obama has increased his national lead over John McCain, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Obama is ahead of McCain by six points, 49-43 percent, which equals his biggest lead in this poll. Two weeks ago, the Democratic nominee held a two-point advantage over his Republican counterpart, 48-46 percent.
“Over the past couple of weeks, McCain has absorbed a very tough, one-two punch,” says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted this survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart. “First, the financial crisis… Second, the debates. These two things have clearly led to a momentum shift in this campaign, where Obama has slowly started to [increase] his lead.”
With fewer than 30 days until Election Day, Hart adds, “I think John McCain finds himself in a hole no candidate wants to be in” — behind.
The poll — which was conducted of 658 registered voters from Oct. 4-5, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8 percentage points — comes after the financial crisis on Wall Street dominated the news, forced Congress to pass a costly rescue package and emerged as the No. 1 topic on the presidential campaign trail.
Third, a new poll from CBS News is the only poll out there that seems to suggest a slight bump for McCain in the wake of the Vice-Presidential debate:
(CBS) In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
And, finally, a new Reuters/Zogby poll shows Obama with a three point lead:
NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 3-point lead in the U.S. presidential race on Republican John McCain less than a month before the election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Obama leads McCain among likely U.S. voters 48 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, which has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Four percent of voters said they were still undecided.
The survey, the first in a series of daily tracking polls that will sample public opinion until the November 4 election, showed Obama with an advantage among the crucial swing voting blocs of independents and women.
“Obama is leading among the key target groups, but this race is nowhere close to over,” pollster John Zogby said. “The deal is far from closed.”
So far, though, no other national poll reflects any significant bump for McCain since Thursday night:
And the trends continue to be in Obama’s favor:
Later today, one more set of tracking poll updates and then it’s debate time.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Most pundits who have recently reported, indicate that Obama will need at least a seven percent margin to overcome the “Wilder Effect” (also known by other names) where people lie to pollsters so as not to appear against Obama for racial reasons, when they don’t really support him.
Obama is past that margin in some areas and is close to passing that milestone here in Virginia. Right now, it looks like Virginia will be Blue on November 4th.
Had McCain picked Romney, his ticket would have been in a strong position to express economic leadership and would send a message of financial competence to the world markets. Instead, McCain selected a trophy Veep, the notoriously air-headed, Palin.
The first person that President Obama should thank for his victory, should be Palin. Republicans have no choice but to hunker down and find a good libertarian-Republican candidate for 2012. In the next four years, we will live through, as the Chinese threat says, “Interesting times.”