Borrowed from David Friedman:
Assume, as now seems likely, that Obama wins the election. What happens to Governor Palin? Does she sink back into obscurity as governor of a small state or does she become the leader of a major wing of the Republican party and a future candidate for Vice President or even President?
An interesting question.
In some sense, I think it depends on how the history of a losing McCain campaign is written and how her role is judged. Based solely on the past month, I’d have to say that any chance that Sarah Palin would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or beyond is pretty remote. Unless she cleans up her act and gets some advisors who tell her that the folksy hockey mom bit isn’t going to work on the national stage, it just isn’t going to happen.
More importantly, though, I think it’s highly unlikely that a losing Vice-Presidential candidate is going to be able to leapfrog herself over guys like Romney or Huckabee, and there are going to be plenty of other more serious contender out there like Bobby Jindal who are going to shine in comparison to Palin.
No, in all likelihood Sarah Palin will fade into historical memory.
She’s done for now.
What she needs to do, if she really wants to come back to the national stage, is go back Alaska and get elected a couple more times. Then, in 2016, she might be able to make a credible run as a female Reagan.
But 2012 is Romney’s and Huckabee’s turn. And they would assail her unreadiness in 2008 if she tried to step back in so soon after what’s shaping up to be a devastating loss.
Are you kidding me? She’ll sink back into obscurity like a stone tied around an anvil’s ankle. First off, there will be plenty of finger pointing after McCain’s loss – assuming it happens… The gloves will be off for those in the party who didn’t like her in the first place, and thought (rightly?) the McCain and crew made a bad choice that only strengthened the base and did nothing for the independents.
Secondly, she truly has *no* national experience beyond these 10 weeks, and since she’s being protected like a hothouse flower, she’s getting no ability to draw strength from the learning process, as say Nixon or McCain has in their past runs.
Finally, to put the question a different way. How would she have done in this year’s Republican Primary? She would have been *hammered* by the likes of Thompson, Romney, Giuliani. Republican Primary politics is the most brutal of alpha male contests, and i don’t think her “don’t touch me, i’m a woman” shtick would last more than 1 week.
Justin,
I strongly disagree. 2012 will be Bobby Jindal’s turn. Romney is done and Huckabee won’t stand a chance against Jindal.
[...] came on October 8, 2008. A month before the 2008 Election was even over, and 1,491 days before the 2012 [...]
Palin (Failin) is a disgrace to all Americans. She is a laughed at around the world. Over 200,000 women joined WASP (Women Against Sarah Palin) to get her off the Republican ticket. They switched to Democratic candidate who was worthy. Palin is uneducated, immoral, dishonest, coniving, interested only in herself rather than her country, not liked by over half of her state (check records) and should never be allowed to disgrace us again!!!