As we get closer to Election Day, it’s becoming apparent that the GOP has problems that go beyond the Presidential race:
WASHINGTON — The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say.
Top campaign officials for both parties, pollsters and independent experts say the intense focus on the economic turmoil and last week’s bailout vote have combined to rapidly expand a Democratic advantage in Congressional contests. Analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities.
In North Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Dole, a former Republican presidential contender and cabinet member, is teetering. In Kentucky, the opponent of the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, has drawn even in some polls, though Republicans say they believe he will win.
Democrats say they feel confidently ahead in five Senate races where they hope to pick up Republican seats, and they believe their candidates are running competitively in seven more.
In the House, Democrats say they could capture a dozen of the 26 Republican seats left open by retirements, and challengers are closing in on Republican incumbents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New York and elsewhere.
“The last week has severely damaged Republican candidates,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst who predicts that Democrats could gain as many as six to nine Senate seats and 25 to 30 House seats. “Everything points to warning signals for Republicans.”
On the House side, these warning signs can be seen in a generic ballot that tilts heavily in favor of Democrats, thus suggesting the possibility of significant losses for the GOP on November 4th.
On the Senate side, the possibility of the Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof majority is increasing with each passing day:
WASHINGTON (CNN) — In the face of an economy in crisis and a deeply unpopular president, some analysts believe the situation is ripe to give Democrats a shot at a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate in November.
It’s “the perfect storm,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “You’ve got Republican voters angry at Republicans, many Americans just petrified about the future…wanting change. And right now change appears to be coming in the form of Democrats.”
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The last time either party had this ability was in the 95th Congress of 1977-1979, when Democrats held 61 seats during President Jimmy Carter’s administration. Carter faced concerns similar to those today — economic instability, inflation and a 7.5 percent unemployment rate.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Democrats have a good shot at reaching a 60-seat majority in November, a possibility he all but ruled out earlier this year.
“The fundamentals of this election year could not be more Democratic,” Sabato said. “You’ve got a terrible economy, a deeply unpopular president and an unpopular war. You put those elements together and it’s going to produce a Democratic victory. … The only question is, what size?”
As thing stands, the Democrats seem likely to pick up Republican seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico.
That’s a net gain of four right there.
They are also within striking distance in North Carolina, Minnesota, Missisisippi, and Georgia.
That’s another four potential targets right there. Even if they don’t win all of them, they’re likely to win some — North Carolina and Georgia being the most likely — and every step closer to 60 seats means more trouble for the GOP.
