A new Fox News poll shows Obama with a seven point lead over John McCain:
Barack Obama leads John McCain by 46 percent to 39 percent, according to a FOX News national registered voter poll released Friday. Two weeks ago Obama led by 45 percent to 39 percent (Sept. 22-23).
Obama’s advantage comes mainly from doing better among women, blacks, young voters, those with a college degree, and unmarried voters. He has increased his edge over McCain among women to 16 percentage points, up from a 4-point edge last month (Sept. 8-9).
Obama has also improved his standing with his party faithful. A month ago, 79 percent of Democrats were backing Obama. Today it is 86 percent. McCain has consistently received the backing of over 80 percent of Republicans and is backed by 83 percent today.
Independents split their vote 34 percent Obama and 32 percent McCain, with 24 percent unsure. That’s little changed from two weeks ago when Obama was up by 36 percent to 31 percent and 29 percent undecided.
A 61 percent majority of voters believes Obama is going to win the election - more than three times as many as believe McCain will (18 percent). A month ago it was evenly divided: 41 percent Obama and 40 percent McCain (Sept. 8-9). This summer, voters were more likely to say Obama would win: 51 percent Obama and 27 percent McCain (July 22-23).
All of the interviews for the poll were conducted after the town-hall style presidential debate held on Tuesday, Oct. 7. Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from Oct. 8 to Oct. 9. The poll has a 3-point error margin.
The Fox poll also shows that the underlying numbers are all in Obama’s favor as well:
By 50 percent to 35 percent, Obama tops McCain as the candidate voters trust to handle the economy. Obama has the edge on all other issues tested save two - on handling the war on terrorism McCain is preferred by 14 points and on Iraq by 5 points.
The Obama-Biden ticket has a clear advantage on “having better judgment” (+ 7 points), “bringing the right change to Washington” (+ 15 points), “better understands American families and their problems” (+ 24 points). By a slim margin the Democratic ticket is also seen as better understanding “America’s importance in the world” (+ 3 points).
The McCain-Palin ticket has a significant edge on “having more experience” (+ 28 points).
What about the gut check question? If you had to make the toughest decision of your life, which candidate would you go to for advice? 42 percent say Obama and 41 percent McCain. That’s a significant shift from a month ago when 50 percent said they would go to McCain and 34 percent Obama (Sept. 8-9).
These numbers are going to be next-to-impossible for McCain to reverse.
