Sunday’s tracking polls are out and there are signs that the race may have narrowed slightly over the past several days.
In the Rasmussen poll, Obama maintains a six point lead over McCain for the second day:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the seventeenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the very narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% (see trends).
Obama leads by fourteen percentage points among women while McCain leads by two among men. Both men lead by an 86% to 12% margin among members of their own party while Obama holds an eight point advantage among unaffiliated voters
In the Gallup poll, however, Obama’s lead, which had been at 11 points recently, has narrowed to nine points:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.
These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama’s lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days’ polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
Gallup also notes that the race is tighter still when only likely voters are polled under the two models that Gallup will start using over the next three weeks:
The first likely voter model is based on Gallup’s traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents’ likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama’s advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.
The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents’ current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain.
What this means going forward remains to be seen.
