If this poll is accurate, then things really are bad for McCain/Palin:
Barack Obama is shown with an edge against John McCain in a North Dakota presidential race that has narrowed to a statistical tie, according to a new Forum poll.
The survey shows Obama squeaking past McCain, 45 percent to 43 percent, a lead that falls within the poll’s margin of error and therefore indicates a dead heat, according to political analysts.
Still up for grabs: undecided voters, comprising 12 percent.
“It’s a statistical tossup,” said Jim Danielson, co-director of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which conducted the statewide telephone survey for The Forum. Pollsters contacted 606 likely North Dakota voters by telephone Oct. 6-8.
The poll indicates McCain’s once-comfortable lead in North Dakota has melted away as Obama is the widely favored choice among voters who consider the economy the most pressing issue.
Among voters who rank the economy as their top concern, 49 percent favor Obama, while 38 percent back McCain. The economy was far and away the most important national issue among voters, according to the poll, even though a majority regarded their own economic situation as “better off” or the “same” compared to a year ago.
Another troubling sign in the poll for McCain, who has styled himself as a maverick who is not a clone of President Bush: McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.
(…)
If Obama defeats McCain in North Dakota’s Nov. 4 election, it would be a historic loss for the Republicans, who have failed to carry the state in only three presidential elections since 1916, most recently Lyndon Johnson’s defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Yikes.
[...] Earlier this week, I noted that there was one weird poll coming out of North Dakota showing Barack Obama with a slight lead. [...]