Three weeks from today, the only poll that matters will be taking place and, hopefully, by the end of Election Night, we’ll know who will be the 44th President of the United States. As things stand now, it’s looking more and more likely that it will be Barack Obama.
In the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over John McCain for the third straight day:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday once again shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the third straight day with identical numbers and the nineteenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% (see trends).
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Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 255-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174
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Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 53% (see trends).
Obama and McCain are now running even among men, but Obama has an eleven point advantage among women
The Obama/Biden ticket is also holding steady in the Gallup Daily tracking poll:
PRINCETON, NJ — With exactly three weeks remaining before Election Day, Barack Obama leads John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters by nine percentage points, 51% to 42%.
Gallup is also looking at the race according to two likely voter scenarios. One, the traditional Gallup approach, takes into account voters’ intentions to vote in the current election as well as their self-reported voting history. Among this group, Obama leads McCain by six points, 51% to 45%. The other approach uses only voters’ self-professed likelihood to vote in 2008, but does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections. Among this expanded group, Obama leads by 10 points, 53% to 43%.
As noted in Tuesday’s report, between 50% and 52% of registered voters have favored Obama in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days, the preferences of registered voters have, in fact, been quite stable, with Obama averaging a nine-point lead.
Additionally, the RealClearPolitics polling average, which includes these polls and several others released within the last two days, gives Obama a 7.3 percentage point lead over McCain.
Absent a drastic turn of events, the odds of McCain turning this around are slim.
