Heading into the final debate, and the final three weeks, of the Presidential campaign, Barack Obama continues to hold on to a lead that appears more insurmountable by the day.
In the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama is holding on to a five-point lead for the fourth consecutive day:
As the candidates prepare for their final debate, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday once again shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the fourth straight day with identical numbers and the twentieth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%
Rasmussen does, however, offer one small bit of good news for McCain:
For McCain, the encouraging news comes from core supporters—those who are certain how they will vote and that they will not change their mind. Just 42% are certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. That two-point gap is much closer than the overall numbers. It’s also much closer than the 45% to 38% advantage among core supporters enjoyed by Obama heading into the second Presidential Debate last week.
Overall, 12% of voters remain persuadables who favor one candidate or the other but could change their mind. Those, plus the 3% who remain undecided, are the target audience for both candidates in tonight’s debate.
The Gallup Daily tracking polls shows a similar small sliver of hope for the Republican candidate:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama continuing to lead John McCain, now by seven percentage points among registered voters, 50% to 43%.
These results, based on Oct. 12-14 polling, represent a slightly better showing for McCain than has been the case in recent weeks. His 43% share of the vote matches his high over the past two weeks — roughly covering the month of October to date — due, in part, to a stronger showing in Tuesday night’s polling. Obama’s 50% support level matches his average for October to date.
Among likely voters, it’s a slightly tighter race as usual:
Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The “expanded” model determines likely voters based only on their current voting intention. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, but who may be inspired to vote this year. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures as is the case today, showing Obama up by eight points, 52% to 44%.
The “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, though with Obama still ahead. Today’s results show Obama with a three-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 46%.
After tonight, we’ll see if anything changes.
