For better or worse, there are signs in the latest tracking polls that last week’s negative campaign from the McCain camp may have had some impact.
In the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama’s lead is down to four points due largely to an increase in support for John McCain:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. It’s the first time since September 25 that McCain’s support has reached 46%, but Obama has now enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-one straight days (see trends).
Today’s numbers do not reflect any impact from last night’s Presidential Debate. Results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The overwhelming majority of interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of the debate. Sunday morning’s results will be the first based entirely upon post-debate interviews.
In the Gallup Daily Poll, Obama’s lead fell to six points and he dropped below 50% for the first time in two weeks:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.
Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night’s third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday’s report.
Meanwhile, the current rolling average shows that McCain has done slightly better in the days leading into the debate. McCain’s 43% share of the vote matches his best in the last two weeks. Today’s average also represents the first time since the Sept. 30 – Oct. 2 average that Obama has received less than 50% support from registered voters, although Obama continues to maintain a significant lead among this group.
And there are similar signs of tightening in Gallup’s likely voter numbers:
Starting on Friday, we should know if the debate moved the goalposts at all.
October 16th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
[...] Could the American electorate be far behind in this realization? We still have two and a half weeks to go. and the race may be getting closer already (Below the Beltway). [...]