Notwithstanding signs yesterday of a tightening race, today’s tracking polls continue to show Barack Obama leading John McCain, and little initial impact from Wednesday’s debate.
In the Rasmussen poll, Obama continues to lead McCain by four percentage points:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-two straight days. The last time McCain was up by even a single point was one month ago today
(…)
The two candidates are even among men while Obama leads by eight points among women. Obama leads by thirteen percentage points among voters under 40 while McCain leads by six among those over 65. Voters from 40 to 64 are more evenly divided. Political conservatives favor McCain by an 80% to 17% margin while liberals favor Obama by an even wider margin, 89% to 8%
In the Gallup Daily tracking poll, Obama leads by seven points among registered voters:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Tuesday through Thursday shows Barack Obama with a 50%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.
This three-day rolling average includes one full night of interviewing after Wednesday night’s final presidential debate, and shows little significant change as a result of the debate at this point. Obama has now returned to 50% of the vote among registered voters, while McCain has been stable at 43% of the vote for three consecutive reports.
Among likely voters, the projected lead varies:
Gallup’s likely voter scenarios show differing patterns. If turnout in this year’s election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year’s election, the race is a close one, with Obama holding on to a two percentage point margin, 49% to 47%. If a much higher than usual proportion of new voters turn out, thus increasing the potential impact of groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities, Obama has a six-point lead, 51% to 45%
In other words, the likely voter model that shows a two-point gap between the candidates should only be considered a valid indicator of where the race stands today if you assume that voter turnout in 2008 will follow the same patterns it has in recent elections. If, however, you take into consideration the higher-than-historic turnouts we saw during the primary season, it doesn’t necessarily indicate anything about how the election might turnout.
In addition it’s worth noting that several other tracking polls (all of which poll likely voters) including the Zogby/Reuters/C-Span poll, the Hotline poll, the GW/Battleground poll, and the Investors Business Daily tracking poll all show Obama leading by either 4 or 5 points.
Additionally, Obama continues to have a substantial lead, as of today 6.9 points, in the RealClearPolitics poll average, and there’s no sign yet of significant move in McCain’s direction:
Until that happens, the Gallup “traditional” likely voter model is, I think, rather suspect.
