Today’s Washington Post sets forth in stark detail the difficult job the next President will have starting on Day One:
If Sen. Barack Obama wakes up as the president-elect on Nov. 5, he will immediately assume responsibility for fixing a shredded economy while the Bush administration is still in office. If Sen. John McCain wins the election, he will face an imminent confrontation over spending with a Democratic Congress called back into special session with the goal of passing a new economic stimulus package.
Either way, the 77-day period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, traditionally known simply as the transition, is sure to present difficult challenges to a new president buffeted by intense forces, political and economic, without any chance to recover from the long and bruising campaign.
The challenge of putting the country back on a sound financial track has altered what under the best of circumstances would have been a frenzied period spent forming a new government. Instead, Obama or McCain will be forced to assemble a new administration even as he helps shape policies to ward off further declines in the economy.
It’s uncertain territory mostly because, as Dan Balz notes in a separate article, the only other time in recent history when one President has succeeded another in the middle of a crisis was when Franklin Roosevelt succeeded Herbert Hoover in 1933, and that didn’t go so well:
In the fall of 1932, the country was beginning to experience faint signs of recovery. But the election and the transition seemed to stop it in its tracks. Herbert Hoover lacked the standing to rally the country. Roosevelt wanted no part of his predecessor’s legacy and stood apart. From November to March, when Roosevelt was finally sworn in, the country entered a period of drift and demoralization. By the time Roosevelt took office, he faced a full-blown crisis.
According to some records of the time, Hoover attempted to get FDR to support him in calling for a bank holiday to calm the financial system several times during the period from the November election until Inauguration Day, which at that time was still on March 4th, but FDR was loath to agree even though he did exactly the same thing the week he took office. Whether that helped prolong the crisis that sent the country spiraling into an economic downturn that didn’t end until the nation entered World War II can’t be known, but it certainly couldn’t have helped.
This year, both candidates would face challenges during the now-shorter interregnum between November 4th and January 20th:
Top advisers said McCain would move quickly to implement the economic agenda he has promised, including tax cuts, business incentives, lower trade subsidies and controls on government spending that he says are bankrupting the country. But Democratic leaders have already signaled their intention to pass a stimulus package during November’s lame-duck session.
“If they try to put together a $300 billion stimulus package that’s throwing money at problems — feel-good money — and we haven’t gotten the accountability and reform in place, then we’ll have a fight,” predicted Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), a McCain confidant.
Obama would have to try to influence economic policy while it is still the province of President Bush, whose policies could have lasting effects on an Obama presidency that was supposed to emphasize “change” and “hope.”
“He’s going to be deferential to an outgoing president, but also not shy about expressing himself,” said a senior Democrat involved in transition talks. “I wouldn’t be surprised if you see as much visibility post-election as now.”
Obama would also have to take steps aimed at fulfilling his promise to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq. To ensure continuity at the Pentagon, he may try to persuade Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates to stay in order to begin designing a plan that establishes the time frame for withdrawal.
How Obama would manage the phase between his election and inauguration could set the tone for his presidency. And in the days after being sworn in, Obama would face opportunities and pitfalls on an immense scale.
He could establish the image of a young, history-making president with a mandate from the country and the backing of a friendly Congress. Or he could appear to be an inexperienced new executive, caught between the demands of Republicans he pledged to consult and newly energized liberals who expect him to make good.
As with everything else about this campaign, the transition period will be unlike anything we’ve seen before.
