Below The Beltway

Two weeks from today, the only poll that really matters will be under way. As things stand right now, it’s looking more and more like it will be a very good day for Barack Obama.

Before we look at numbers, Nate Silver has a very helpful look at each of the current tracking polls (there are eight of them), the models they use, and their past accuracy:

[N]one of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen — with its large sample size and high pollster rating — would probably be the one I’d want with me on a desert island. Conversely, the only one of the trackers that I consider obviously dubious is Zogby.

The Rasmussen tracking poll, for example, shows a race that has been remarkably steady for nearly a month now:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. The race has remained very stable over the past month and Obama’s support has not dipped below 50% in nearly a month (see trends).

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now say that Obama is a better leader than McCain while 42% hold the opposite view. That’s the first time all year that Obama has held the advantage on this question

That leadership number alone should be enough to make the guys at Camp Maverick in Arlington very, very nervous if they aren’t already.

The Gallup Daily tracking poll, meanwhile, shows Obama with a lead ranging between seven and eleven percent under each of the three scenarios that Gallup is using:

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama maintains a lead over John McCain in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update from Saturday through Monday; the size of the lead varies between seven and 10 percentage points among likely voters, depending on turnout assumptions.

Among all registered voters, there has been fairly little variation in recent days, with Obama receiving between 50% and 52% of the vote over the last five reports and McCain in a range between 41% and 43%. In the current three-day rolling average of registered voters Obama remains ahead by 52% to 41%, exactly the same as Monday’s update.

Among likely voters, Obama’s lead has expanded steadily under both the traditional model:

and, the model which presumes higher turnout among newly registered voters:

The gap is widening, not closing, and McCain’s options are dwindling.