The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza seems to think that Sarah Palin has a real chance at the Republican nomination in 2012:
[T]he fact that Palin’s number have faltered among the general electorate and that some in the conservative chattering class have soured on her only strengthens her profile among rank and file conservatives come 2012.
In late September polling by the Post (the last time we asked detailed questions of voter attitudes on Palin) nearly nine in ten (87 percent) Republicans and 84 percent of conservatives felt favorably toward her. More than six in ten felt “strongly” favorable.
And, in contrast to the defections in some circles McCain has seen (and Edsall detailed) following the Palin pick, Republicans and conservatives, by and large, believe her selection demonstrated the strength of McCain’s decision-making process, according to a Post tracking poll released yesterday.
More than seven in ten Republicans and just under that number of self-identified “conservatives” said McCain’s choice of Palin made them more confident in the kind of decisions he’d make as president.
In most presidential primaries, the candidate most in line with the conservative or liberal base of their party winds up winning. (McCain was an exception to that rule; Obama was not.) Palin is clearly OF the conservative base in a real and meaningful way; they view her as their first real spokesperson on the national stage in recent memory — perhaps since Ronald Reagan. It’s hard to imagine those feelings going away because she has not worn well with either moderate and independent minded voters of the conservative media.
The problem is that, come 2012, or more likely 2011 or so when the race for the GOP Nomination actually starts, Sarah Palin will be up against candidates with, you know, experience that she lacks, like Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and, hopefully, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford. On the “young, reformer” angle, she’s likely to have competition in the person of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal who many had hoped would be the VP nominee this year instead of her. It’s hard to see her out-shining any of those people.
Moreover, Jon Henke at The Next Right notes that Palin lacks the qualities that a future leader of the conservative wing of the GOP will need:
As an abstraction, Sarah Palin is a fantastic leader. She’s a genuine outsider, she’s stood up to her own party, she’s pursued and won major reform fights, she’s made difficult cuts in spending, and she’s generally in line with the Republican grassroots on policy issues. And she’s a fresh, interesting face for the Republican Party.
But to be the substantive leader of a political movement, she needs three things:
- A clear, but sophisticated, political philosophy
- A serious governing strategy to move the ball forward on her political philosophy
- A support base, including grassroots and elite infrastructure, that can mobilize to defend her and advance her agenda
(…)
Does Sarah Palin have any of those things? I haven’t seen any evidence that she has the sophisticated political philosophy, or a good governing strategy. Would Palin walk out of hte ‘08 campaign with the McCain campaign’s mailing list? Doubtful. And the McCain campaign’s mailing list is not obviously well-aligned with the coalition that would be needed to take back the Republican Party, or that they are sufficiently engaged to be mobilized for such an effort.
I understand why Palin is a compelling idea. I just haven’t seen much evidence that she’s got the serious substance behind the marketing abstraction. At least, not right now.
And, finally, there’s the issue of how this election turns out. If Palin is seen as one of the primary reasons that McCain lost, and several recent polls suggest that she is dragging the ticket down (see here, here, and here) then that is likely to be held against her by the party stalwarts who will start lining up behind potential nominees in 2011 or earlier.
Will Sarah Palin be a candidate in 2012 ? Probably, especially if Bill Kristol keeps whispering in her ear.
Will she be a serious contender ? That is incredibly unlikely.
H/T: Donklephant
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:50 am
So what you’re saying is that, 4 years from now (with another 4 years of Gubernatorial experience, on top of the 1 1/2 year she already has), Sarah Palin will not be experienced enough to be a qualified candidate?
Plus, besides having a talk show, what is Huckabee going to do to add to his experience? Same goes for Romney, and he doesn’t even have a show to keep him in the public eye or to add to his “experience”. Granted, I like Romney, and I’m semi-warm to Huckabee, but a good portion of your argument, which may have applicable sense now in terms of Palin’s inexperience and somehwat generic ideology that she has shown on the stump (though, let’s credit some of that to the fact that she can’t deviate too much from McCain’s stances), these same statements won’t fly as much in 2012.
I do agree with you that the person who could claim her throne as the young, upstart outsider is Jindal…who will also have 5 years of Gubernatorial experience by 2012.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
What I’m saying is that even in 4 years Palin will offer nothing to the average GOP voter that they couldn’t find in a more qualified candidate.
Put her up against Bobby Jindal and he’d eat her for lunch.
October 22nd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Phil and Doug,
I would argue that Jindal (former head of Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, former member of Medicare bipartisan commission staff, former president of University of Louisiana system, former undersecretary of DHHS, former Congressman, and current Louisiana governor) has enough experience to serve as POTUS already, especially in 2012.
I would also agree that Jindal would’ve been McCain’s best VP pick and in addition, would’ve been far better than Palin. I know people I talk who refuse to vote for McCain because of Palin.