The longer this goes on, the less likely it is that we’ll see any kind of surge from John McCain that would make a Republican victory on November 4th in the least bit likely.
In the Rasmussen poll, Barack Obama has a seven point lead for the second straight day, continuing a lead than its now nearly five weeks old:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday once again shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%.
Obama leads by sixteen points among women, including a three-point advantage among white women. McCain leads by three among men. Obama now is supported by twelve percent (12%) of Republicans while McCain gets the vote from 10% of Democrats.
(…)
Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters have already cast their ballots or plan to vote early this year. That figure includes 37% of Obama supporters and 35% of those for McCain. Forty-nine percent (49%) of African-American voters say they will be voting early. Voters not affiliated with either major party are far less likely to vote early than partisans.
And in the Gallup Poll, Obama continues to maintain significant leads under all three polling scenarios:
PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama maintains a statistically significant lead over John McCain among likely voters interviewed Tuesday through Thursday as part of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking program, with a 51% to 44% margin using an “expanded” model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters, and a 50% to 45% margin using the “traditional” model Gallup has employed in past elections.
These results are based on Oct. 21-23 polling. The precise numbers vary slightly from day to day, as would be expected given normal sampling considerations and the high-visibility campaign currents that are swirling around voters in the closing days of the campaign. Obama’s share of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 49% to 51% among the traditional likely voter group over the last two weeks, and within a 50% to 53% range among the expanded likely voter group. There has been only slightly more fluidity in McCain’s share, ranging from 44% to 47% among traditional likely voters, and 42% to 46% among the expanded group. These slight shifts in estimates of each candidate’s share are minimal. Nothing so far represents a major change in the structure of the race, and the big picture conclusion is that Obama is maintaining his lead over McCain with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.
That’s pollster-speak for “we’re pretty sure it’s over, folks.”
The results are largely the same in the other tracking polls. Obama has a ten point lead in the Zogby poll, an eleven point lead in the ABC/Washington Post poll, a seven point lead in the Hotline poll, a three point lead in the GWU/Battleground poll, and a four point lead in an Investor’s Business Daily poll that appears to be far to chaotic from day-to-day to be reliable.
As you can imagine, this is all having a very predictable impact:
Not to mention the fact that there are increasing signs of what Justin Gardner is calling an Electoral Armageddon for the McCain campaign.
Three weeks ago, I noted that time running was out for John McCain, while the closing bell won’t officially sound until the polls close on Election Day, I think it’s fairly obvious that any chance McCain had of closing the gap has passed. At this point, the GOP would do better to concentrate on staving of disaster in the House and Senate than spending any more energy on a Presidential race that it cannot realistically win.
