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Halloween Tracking Poll Update: McCain Not Scaring Up Any Momentum

by @ 2:43 pm on October 31, 2008. Filed under 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics

There are four days left in the campaign, and there’s still no sign that John McCain has the momentum he would need to pull off what would be an historic upset.

In the Rasmussen poll, Obama’s lead is at four points today thanks to a slight up-tick for McCain:

The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.

Over the past five days, Obama’s lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That’s a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see trends).

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain’s support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.

However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

In the Gallup Poll, meanwhile, the tightening that we saw earlier this week has disappeared completely:

PRINCETON, NJ — The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters — 51% to 43% — his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Since Tuesday, McCain’s support among traditional likely voters has dropped by four points (from 47% to 43%), Obama’s has risen by two points (from 49% to 51%), and the percentage of undecided voters has increased from 4% to 6%.

(…)

Obama’s lead among expanded likely voters is only slightly greater than that seen among traditional likely voters. He now leads McCain by nine-points, 52% to 43%, using this looser definition that does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections, but strictly relies on their reported level of interest and intention to vote in the 2008 election.

Obama’s current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters — 52% to 41% — is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday’s report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago.

Those last two figures are important for a simple reason; if turnout is high on Tuesday, then it will likely benefit Obama.

Elsewhere, Obama is up by 7 points in both the Zogby and Hotline tracking polls, up by 8 in the ABC/Washington Post poll, and up by 4 points in the GWU/Battleground poll and the Investor’s Business Daily poll.

The RealClearPolitics poll average gives Obama an 6.4 point advantage, and while the numbers have fluctuated in the past week, they are still in Obama’s favor.

It’s hard to see how McCain can overcome this.

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