Below The Beltway

If the final polls released before votes are counted tonight are any indication, we could be in for an historic night.

The Rasmussen tracking poll has Barack Obama with a six point lead over John McCain:

The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. One percent (1%) of voters say they’ll select a third-party option while 1% remain undecided.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters cast their ballots early this year and those voters favored Obama by a double-digit margin. Among those who will actually cast their ballots on Tuesday, the candidates are essentially even.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters spent at least an hour discussing the election on Monday while another 20% spent a half hour on the topic.

Fifty-six percent (56%) have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 55% say the same about John McCain.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters expect to see an Obama victory today, including 18% who anticipate a landslide for the Democrat.

Just 19% expect McCain to win, but another 22% say it’s still too close to call.

In the Zogby Poll, which had shown some indications of a McCain surge late last week, Barack Obama closed out the campaign season with a double-digit lead:

UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll — up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday’s report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain.

Pollster John Zogby: “Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change.”

Obama also has a strong lead in the final Investors Business Daily poll:

With just hours to go before the polls open Tuesday, the latest and final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a 7.2-point lead over Sen. John McCain (51.5% Obama vs. 44.3% McCain). All other candidates garner a combined 4.2%.

And, finally, the final Marist poll shows Obama with a nine point lead over John McCain:

The End of the Road…Obama Leads McCain by 9 Percentage Points Nationally Going Into Today’s Election: The campaign trail comes to an end today for Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. In a Marist Poll, conducted entirely on the eve of Election Day, Barack Obama leads John McCain by 9 percentage points nationally — 52% to 43% — among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. In Marist’s Sunday night poll, McCain trailed Obama by the same margin among this group. Among registered voters nationwide, Obama is now ahead of McCain 50% to 42%.

The final RealClearPolitics average has Obama with 7.8 point lead, and the trend lines are all in his favor:

As you look at this chart, consider this.

No Democrat has gotten more than 51% of the popular vote in a Presidential Election since Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in 1964. Jimmy Carter got 50.1% in 1976, and Bill Clinton got 43% in 1992 and 49.24% in 1996,

Even before 1964, and leaving out Franklin Roosevelt’s landslides in 1944, 1940, 1936, and 1932, you have to go back to Andrew Jackson and the Election of 1824 to find a Democrat who got more than 51% of the popular vote. Woodrow Wilson didn’t do it in 1916 or 1912. Grover Cleveland didn’t do it in 1892 or 1884. Samuel Tilden got 51% of the vote in 1876, but he lost in the Electoral College. Other than that, most Democratic Presidents have been minority candidates, except for Franklin Pierce who got 50.8% of the vote in 1852 and Martin van Buren, who also got 50.8% of the vote in the Election of 1836

Barack Obama seems likely to do something that Democrats usually only do when they win in a landslide.