Too Conservative has a blog post up today asking if Gerry Connolly might be vulnerable in the 2010 midterms or beyond.
To which Bwana at Reniassance Ruminations responded:
I think if the GOP doesn’t get back the 11th in 2010, then it may be a while. I bet redistricting in 2012, especially with movement to the exurbs, will see a reapportionment (assuming the dems don’t control gov and GA) that will move precincts around to make the 11th unassailabe as a democratic seat.
To which I responded:
[I]t wouldn’t be that had to move some of the more Republican parts of PWC into the 10th CD, for example. Additionally, there seems to be a good possibility that we’ll gain another House seat after the 2010 Census. If that happens, it would be very easy to make the 11th CD as solidly red as the 8th now is (does anyone remember that Jim Moran’s district used to stretch down to parts of Prince Willie and used to be represented by Stan Parris ?)
Redistricting is a bigger issue, though, because even if, say, Fimian were to run again in 2010 and win he could still be in trouble in 2012 if the lines of the 11th are redrawn to benefit Dems.
The redistricting battle will be fought in 2011 after the results of the 2010 Census are released. That means that the legislature that is seated after the 2009 elections will be the battleground for the future of the Virginia Congressional delegation.
Virginia Republicans better figure out how to win elections again, or their going to find themselves out in the cold.
