Below The Beltway

Two new polls are out today that purport to show that President Obama continues to enjoy broad public support one month into his Presidency.

First, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Obama continuing to maintain strong support among all groups except self-identified Republicans:

As President Obama prepares to address a joint session of Congress tonight, he is receiving strong reviews for his first full month in office, but deep partisan fault lines are quickly reemerging.

Large majorities of Americans in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll support his $787 billion economic stimulus package and the recently unveiled $75 billion plan to stem mortgage foreclosures. Nearly seven in 10 poll respondents said Obama is delivering on his pledge to bring needed change to Washington, and about eight in 10 said he is meeting or exceeding their expectations. At the same time, however, the bipartisan support he enjoyed as he prepared to take office has eroded substantially amid stiff Republican opposition to his major economic initiatives.

Thirty-seven percent of Republicans now approve of how he has done his job, a sharp drop from a month ago, when 62 percent gave him good marks for his handling of the transition. Also, nearly seven in 10 Americans oppose giving $14 billion in new loans to automakers General Motors and Chrysler, something Obama is considering in an effort to prop up the ailing industry and preserve jobs.

Moreover, Congressional Republicans, and Republicans in general continue to suffer from a massive image problem:

Half of all poll respondents said they approve of how congressional Democrats are doing their jobs, up 15 points from July and the highest marks they have received in nearly two years. Congressional Republicans also are being viewed more favorably, with 38 percent approving of their job performance, a 13-point improvement since the middle of last year.

Head to head, though, Americans put far more faith in Obama than in congressional Republicans: Sixty-one percent said they trust Obama more than the GOP on economic matters; 26 percent side with the Republicans in Congress. On that question, Obama’s advantage is bigger than George W. Bush, Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush ever had over the opposition party in the legislature.

Overall, Democrats maintain an edge of nearly 2 to 1 over Republicans as the party that Americans prefer to confront “the big issues” over the next few years.

The results are similar in a new poll from CBS and The New York Times, the latest Gallup poll, and the Rasmussen poll of Presidential approval. And, as Gallup indicates, Obama’s approval ratings at this time are within the historical average for Presidents after their first month in office.

To understand what’s really going on here, I think, you have to look at a few other polls that look at what the mood in country is really like.

Consider, for example, this CNN/Opinion Research poll:

WASHINGTON (CNN) – A new national poll indicates that nearly three out of four Americans are scared about the way things are going in the country today.

Seventy-three percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday say they’re very or somewhat scared about the way things are going in the United States. That’s six points higher than in an October poll.

Nearly eight in 10 say things are going badly in the country, with just 21 percent suggesting that things are going well. The survey also says that three out of four Americans are angry about the way things are going in the country. But three out of four questioned say that things are going well for them personally.

Similar sentiments can be found in Gallup polls which show negative attitudes among consumers, job-seekers, and investors.

People are worried, and Obama is offering a way out. It’s not at all surprising that they’re giving him the benefit of the doubt right now, and it’s not surprising that they’re paying little attention to Congressional Republicans who have done little except say no at every turn.

The real test, of course, will come in the months and years to come. If the economy improves, then Obama gets the credit and we’re unlikely to see any significant Republican gains in 2010; if that improvement continues through 2012, then we could be looking at a repeat of 1996. If the economy doesn’t improve, then Obama gets the blame and pays the price.

There really isn’t anything the Republicans can do right now but wait and see what happens.