Yes, it’s way too early for this to mean all that much, nonetheless this looks like bad news for the GOP all around:
Huckabee fares the best of the top Republican contenders at this point in time, trailing Obama 49-42. That margin is basically the same as what Obama won by against John McCain in November. Huckabee also has the best favorability numbers of the Republican quartet at 42/34. Even after running for President last year a quarter of the country doesn’t have an opinion about him one way or the other.
Sarah Palin’s numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don’t like her that feeling is strong enough they’d rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.
The low 60% favorability rating among GOP voters belongs to Mitt Romney, certainly an indication that securing the nomination is likely to once again be a struggle for him. He is viewed favorably by the largest numbers of Democrats for any of the Republican candidates in the survey, at 27%. He trails Obama 50-39.
The weakest of the potential Republicans at this very early stage is Newt Gingrich, who despite being out of the national spotlight for ten years still appears to have a lot of people who don’t think much of him. 36% of voters in the country have a favorable opinion of him with 44% saying it’s unfavorable.
Justin Gardner breaks down the horse race for us:
Obama: 49%
Huckabee: 42%
Obama +7Obama: 50%
Romney: 39%
Obama +11Obama: 53%
Palin: 41%
Obama +12Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 39%
Obama +13
The interesting, and somewhat distressing thing, is the fact that Obama is at or above 50% with every opponents except Tax Hike Mike, and the idea that he might be the Republican nominee just truly horrifies me.
