Below The Beltway

It’s been just under three days since Sarah Palin shocked most of the political world, and apparently her own father-in-law, by announcing that not only was she not running for re-election in 2010, but she was stepping down as Governor of Alaska by the end of the month.

Not unexpectedly there’s been a lot written about Palin’s decision, the logic behind it (if there is any logic behind it), and what it means both for her future and the GOP. While I haven’t read all of it, and don’t plan to at this point, there are two pieces from today that stand out.

First, Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air looks at the competing interpretations of Palin’s decision being made by conservative pundits, and makes this excellent point:

If, however, Palin wants to pursue national office rather than just be an activist for the rest of her life, her resignation will prove a very messy hurdle. Alaskans trusted her with their higher office on the assumption that she would take it seriously enough to complete the term. Voters would have understood if she had to resign in January to become Vice President, but because — in her own words — she didn’t want to deal with governing as a “lame duck.” The first question in any campaign debate for Palin from now on will be, “Will you quit in the middle of a presidential term if you get disenchanted or get ethics complaints filed against you?”

Palin’s supporters might think that resigning is a brilliant strategic stroke, but those are by far not enough to get her elected President, as the last election pretty clearly showed. Palin needed to build a sober resumé as an executive, someone who could show that the media had her all wrong — someone, as Stirewalt points out, could have her substance eclipse her celebrity. Palin needed to build a broader base, not narrow it down to the true believers, and she had an opportunity to do that by finishing out her term in the tough conditions of an economic downturn. Instead, she resigned to leverage her celebrity, which will not convince current non-believers and political agnostics of her substance. Instead, it gives them even more reason to distrust Palin.

Even more surprising is what Fred Barnes, who has been one of Palin’s biggest boosters since he first wrote about her in 2007, is saying that the “Alaska Maverick’s” national political career is likely over:

Forget about Sarah Palin as the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 and probably ever. She may have no interest in seeking the GOP nomination. But if she does, her chances of winning the nomination have been minimized by her decision to resign as governor of Alaska. She’s knocked out one of three legs of the presidential stool and a second one is wobbly.

I say this reluctantly because Palin, in my view, is the most exciting Republican figure to emerge in decades. She mesmerizes crowds in a way that no other Republican leader can come close to matching. She has what can’t be taught–real charisma.

But personal magnetism is only one of the legs, or underpinnings, for a successful race for the Republican nomination. The other two are experience in office and enough knowledge of foreign and domestic issues to talk about them persuasively. By stepping down, she’s cut her experience short: it now consists of a meager two and a half years as governor of a thinly populated state. And, from all appearances, Palin has made little headway on the issue track.

Even a super-abundance of charisma cannot make up for her shortcomings in experience and knowledge. It might be enough if she were running for a lesser office. The election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor of California proves that point. But running for president on charisma alone? I don’t think so.

You only have to look at the Republican nominees since World War II to see what’s required. Not one of them was anywhere near as lacking in experience and knowledge as Palin is, and that includes the most charismatic of them all, the Great Communicator himself, Ronald Reagan.

Palin is no Reagan.

Now that qualifies as the biggest understatement of the year.