Last month, immediately after the Democratic race for Governor had been decided, Rasumussen reported that Creigh Deeds had opened up a small lead over Bob McDonnell. This came as somewhat of a surprise given the fact that, before June, poll after poll had shown McDonnell with a wide lead over all of his potential opponents. While at the time it appeared that Deeds was opening up a lead, what really seemed to be happening was that the race was tightening.
One month later, it doesn’t look like things have changed all that much:
Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has rebounded to take a narrow lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia, highlighting the expected closeness of that contest right up to November.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 44% to 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.
A month ago, just after Deeds beat two other gubernatorial candidates in the state Democratic Primary, he posted a six-point lead over McDonnell, 47% to 41%.
Given the fact that, just a month ago, it seemed like McDonnell had a massive lead no matter who his opponent was, one could say that Deeds has done a good job closing the gap, but, as the report goes on to note, it may be that Creigh Deeds’ fate is not in his hands:
The key to Deeds’ fortunes in November may prove to be how President Obama is viewed by voters in the state. Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964.
Right now, Virginia voters are closely divided in their views of the president’s performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) approve, including 37% who strongly approve, while 48% disapprove, with 39% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are largely unchanged from June but track slightly better than the president’s ratings nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
As I’ve noted before, Virginia has a habit of electing Governors from the opposite party of the President so a Deeds victory could be considered an historical oddity.
