Below The Beltway

As the euphoria of Election Day, Inauguration Day, and the first 100 Days wears off, the Obama Administration is being hit with a strong dose of reality:

Heading into a critical period in the debate over health-care reform, public approval of President Obama’s stewardship on the issue has dropped below the 50 percent threshold for the first time, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval ratings on other front-burner issues, such as the economy and the federal budget deficit, have also slipped over the summer, as rising concern about spending and continuing worries about the economy combine to challenge his administration. Barely more than half approve of the way he is handling unemployment, which now tops 10 percent in 15 states and the District.

The president’s overall approval rating remains higher than his marks on particular domestic issues, with 59 percent giving him positive reviews and 37 percent disapproving. But this is the first time in his presidency that Obama has fallen under 60 percent in Post-ABC polling, and the rating is six percentage points lower than it was a month ago.

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At the same time, there is no slackening in public desire for Obama to keep pressing for action on the major issues of the economy, health care and the deficit. Majorities think he is either doing the right amount or should put greater emphasis on each of these issues.

On health care, the poll, conducted by telephone Wednesday through Saturday, found that a majority of Americans (54 percent) approve of the outlines of the legislation now heading toward floor action. The measure would institute new individual and employer insurance mandates and create a government-run plan to compete with private insurers. Its costs would be paid in part through new taxes on high-income earners.

(…)

More broadly, 55 percent of Americans put a higher priority on holding the deficit in check than on spending to boost the economy, compared with 40 percent who advocate additional outlays even if it means a sharply greater budget shortfall. This is a big shift from January, when a slim majority preferred to emphasize federal spending.

Independents, who split 50 percent to 46 percent for more spending in January, now break 56 percent to 41 percent for more fiscal discipline. But a larger shift has been among moderate and conservative Democrats, who prioritized more spending by about 2 to 1 in January and March. Now they are about evenly divided in approach.

Nearly a quarter of moderate and conservative Democrats (22 percent) now see Obama as an “old-style tax-and-spend Democrat,” up from 4 percent in March. Among all Americans, 52 percent consider Obama a “new-style Democrat who will be careful with the public’s money.” That is down from 58 percent a month ago and 62 percent in March, to about where President Bill Clinton was on that question in the summer of 1993.

Concerns about the federal account balance are also reflected in views about another round of stimulus spending. In the new poll, more than six in 10 oppose spending beyond the $787 billion already allocated to boost the economy. Most Democrats support more spending; big majorities of Republicans and independents are against the idea.

As the RealClearPolitics poll average shows, this is really the continuation of a trend that has been going on for some time now:

It’s pretty clear what’s going on here, and it’s a summed in a phrase made famous during the 1992 Election. It’s the economy, stupid. While there are some voters whose opinions about Obama are primarily ideological, for most of the vast middle of the American electorate, it’s results, not details that matter. In the six months since Obama assumed office, there have been very few signs that the economy is improving, and many, most specifically the unemployment rate, that seem to suggest that it’s gotten worse. After six months, and five months since the stimulus package was passed, it’s only natural that the public would start to become doubtful about Obama’s policies when they don’t seem to be having that much of an impact.

But this is still only a snapshot in time, as I noted several months ago:

People are worried, and Obama is offering a way out. It’s not at all surprising that they’re giving him the benefit of the doubt right now, and it’s not surprising that they’re paying little attention to Congressional Republicans who have done little except say no at every turn.

The real test, of course, will come in the months and years to come. If the economy improves, then Obama gets the credit and we’re unlikely to see any significant Republican gains in 2010; if that improvement continues through 2012, then we could be looking at a repeat of 1996. If the economy doesn’t improve, then Obama gets the blame and pays the price.

In the end, that’s all that’s going to matter.