Comments on: Hillary 2016 ? http://belowthebeltway.com/2009/07/22/hillary-2016/ I believe in the free speech that liberals used to believe in, the economic freedom that conservatives used to believe in, and the personal freedom that America used to believe in. Sat, 23 Jul 2011 17:00:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Birchbeer http://belowthebeltway.com/2009/07/22/hillary-2016/comment-page-1/#comment-307856 Birchbeer Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:17:40 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/?p=16591#comment-307856 Barring a health concern or feeling fried, I think one basic thing that will determine if Hillary runs in 2016: polls. The presidential election is quickly becoming a 4-year event with no off-season. The first 2012 Republican poll I saw was in November 20008 I believe. Hillary is likely to lead early polls if only because she's one of a handful of potential candidates anyone will know. Plus, she has high favorables. (Though even Biden could do well in such polls. And I think even he'd run if he polled ahead of everyone.) Polls 5 years from now, in mid-2014, could easily persuade Hillary one way or the other. But from where we are, seems quite likely she'd be encouraged to run. Hillary on Election Day 2016 would be 69, the same age Reagan was when he won. Hillary's campaign surrogates weren't shy about crying sexism in 2008 and Reagan's precedent would position them to suggest ageism against Hillary thus equals sexism. Not sure how likely to attract voters such a strategy is, but it's likely to pop up. As in 2008, being the frontrunner doesn't guarantee winning. Nonetheless, I think being frontrunner is the only circumstance that would convince her to go for it. Barring a health concern or feeling fried, I think one basic thing that will determine if Hillary runs in 2016: polls. The presidential election is quickly becoming a 4-year event with no off-season. The first 2012 Republican poll I saw was in November 20008 I believe. Hillary is likely to lead early polls if only because she’s one of a handful of potential candidates anyone will know. Plus, she has high favorables. (Though even Biden could do well in such polls. And I think even he’d run if he polled ahead of everyone.) Polls 5 years from now, in mid-2014, could easily persuade Hillary one way or the other. But from where we are, seems quite likely she’d be encouraged to run.

Hillary on Election Day 2016 would be 69, the same age Reagan was when he won. Hillary’s campaign surrogates weren’t shy about crying sexism in 2008 and Reagan’s precedent would position them to suggest ageism against Hillary thus equals sexism. Not sure how likely to attract voters such a strategy is, but it’s likely to pop up.

As in 2008, being the frontrunner doesn’t guarantee winning. Nonetheless, I think being frontrunner is the only circumstance that would convince her to go for it.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://belowthebeltway.com/2009/07/22/hillary-2016/comment-page-1/#comment-307707 Doug Mataconis Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:46:12 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/?p=16591#comment-307707 That's what they said about Reagan ;) You're probably right, though. That’s what they said about Reagan ;)

You’re probably right, though.

]]> By: Vivian J. Paige http://belowthebeltway.com/2009/07/22/hillary-2016/comment-page-1/#comment-307706 Vivian J. Paige Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:45:17 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/?p=16591#comment-307706 Not happening. She'll be 68 - far too old for a woman to be elected president. We don't allow women to grow old in the public eye. Not happening. She’ll be 68 – far too old for a woman to be elected president. We don’t allow women to grow old in the public eye.

]]>