Nate Silver takes a look at the numbers, compares Sarah to Hillary, and comes up with an answer:
Clinton’s numbers four years ago were about 7-9 points better than Palin’s are now (or twice that if you’re looking at these on a net basis). Although a fairly sizable amount of the country disliked Clinton, she was still in positive territory. Palin generally has not been.
(…)
Palin beings with a steeper hill to climb … and to my view, I don’t think she’s likely to be as capable as Clinton of (almost) getting there. To Nyhan’s point, there are differences in work ethic (although Palin’s is not poor), political instincts (although Clinton’s were not perfect — she hired Mark Penn) and frankly (and most importantly) raw intelligence. Palin also begins with much less institutional support within her party than Clinton did, although she may have more grassroots support.
We’re not in the business of saying “never” around here. Palin absolutely could become President someday. But it isn’t very likely. If the Republicans nominate her (which is certainly possible), I think Obama could get away with having approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40’s and still be at least even-money to win. That wouldn’t be the case against Mitt Romney.
Ouch.
Sarah, if you’re looking for a new career, maybe you should check to see if Elizabeth Hasselbeck’s seat on The View is opening up anytime soon.
I realize that I’m a Sarah Palin fan and you’re not. But I still don’t know if I could/would support her for a Presidential run in 2012.
But, what I think this article doesn’t take into account is that, in spite of what you think of her, she’s changing the way the game is played.
[...] from Below the Beltway asks: Does Palin Have A Chance To Be President? The article he links to would suggest that she does not. But what the article fails to take into [...]
I think that the “raw intelligence” slam is unwarranted. If the writer were to have said “comparatively uneducated,” that would stick. However, there are many people, many media people especially, who are impressed with Palin’s raw intelligence. Moreover, many of those media people think that because she is charismatic and shrewd, she must be destroyed.
I do not think that she will run in 2012 for President. Instead, she will be a kingmaker during the primary season. She will also use her notoriety to advance her p-o-v on a variety of issues.
She will run in 2016 if Obama wins re-election. She will run in 2020 if Obama loses in 2012. Palin will be 56 in 2020, or younger than Hillary Clinton was in 2008.
chsw
> That wouldn’t be the case against Mitt Romney.
Folks keep saying stuff like that, but Massachusetts is now suffering under RomneyCare. I’m sure that will be a big deal if he’s in the running again.