Following up on last week’s Rasmussen poll, today we have a new poll from the Washington Post showing the Virginia Governor’s race is, for the moment at least, a dead heat:
Dramatic shifts among independent female voters and Northern Virginians over the past month have propelled Democrat R. Creigh Deeds to within four points of Republican Robert F. McDonnell in the race for Virginia governor, according to a new Washington Post poll.
The change among likely voters — down from a 15-point margin in mid-August — coincides with the publication and ensuing controversy surrounding McDonnell’s graduate school thesis, in which he writes of his opposition to working women, feminists and gay people.
In the new poll, McDonnell edges Deeds by 51 to 47 percent among voters who say they are certain to vote in November, with the poll offering both candidates reasons to be optimistic as people begin to make up their minds six weeks before Election Day.
McDonnell, a former state attorney general and legislator, continues to top 50 percent among likely voters and boasts far more enthusiastic supporters than Deeds. The Republican also still holds advantages on handling an array of major issues, including the economy, the state budget, taxes, transportation and guns.
A sizable majority of voters also say they want the state, which has been run by Democrats for the past eight years, to move in a new direction.
Nevertheless, Deeds has gained on many fronts and has a double-digit advantage when it comes to dealing with issues of special concern to women.
(…)
The poll, conducted by telephone Monday through Thursday, included interviews with 2,113 adult Virginians, 1,003 of whom said they were “absolutely certain” to vote in the gubernatorial election. The results for the sample of likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger.
Meaning that the race is statistically tied.
And, it does appear that the thesis story has had an impact on the race:
Following news coverage of the thesis, the poll offers fresh evidence the tactic might be working: The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as “too conservative” has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as “just about right” ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.
In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell.
And the regional differences are starting to show themselves:
In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.
In contrast to his gains in Northern Virginia, Deeds has made little evident progress in the rural western and southwestern part of the state, a region the Democrat calls home, or “Deeds country,” and where he has spent significant time. McDonnell tops 60 percent in this area, for his best showing in the state.
Overall, McDonnell, who has lived in the state’s three most-populous areas and resides outside Richmond, leads 55 to 44 percent outside Northern Virginia.
With 44 days left until Election Day, it does seem we’ve got a horse race on our hands.
