Below The Beltway

The latest CBS/New York Times poll shows that while the President remains popular, his major policy initiatives are not:

President Obama is confronting declining support for his handling of the war in Afghanistan and an electorate confused and anxious about a health care overhaul as he prepares for pivotal battles over both issues, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

But Mr. Obama is going into the fall having retained considerable political strength. At 56 percent, his approval rating is down from earlier in the year but still reasonably strong at this point compared with recent presidents.

More Americans are starting to credit his stimulus package with having helped to revive the economy. And Mr. Obama retains a decided advantage with the American public over Republicans on prominent issues, starting with health care.

The poll found that an intense campaign by Mr. Obama to rally support behind his health care plan — including an address to Congress, a run of television interviews and rallies across the country — appears to have done little to allay concerns.

Majorities of respondents said that they were confused about the health care argument and that Mr. Obama had not done a good job in explaining what he was trying to accomplish.

“The Obama administration seems to have a plan, but I’m not understanding the exact details,” Paul Corkery, 59, a Democrat from Somerset, N.J., said in a follow-up interview.

But the poll suggests that Mr. Obama is in a decidedly more commanding position than Republicans on this issue as Congressional negotiations move into final stages. Most Americans trust Mr. Obama more than Republicans to make the right decisions on the issue; 76 percent said Republicans had not even laid out a clear health care plan.

And by a lopsided margin, respondents said that Mr. Obama and not Republicans had made an effort to cross party lines and strike a deal that has the support of both parties. Two-thirds of respondents said they wanted Congress to come up with a bill supported by both sides.

At the same time, there has been a slip in confidence in Mr. Obama’s handling of the war in Afghanistan. There is tepid support for maintaining troop strength there, much less increasing it, as his top commander in Afghanistan prepares to submit a request for additional forces. A majority of Americans do not want troops there for more than two years.

(…)

The percentage of people who approve of the way he has dealt with Afghanistan has dropped to 44 percent from 56 percent in April. The percentage of Americans who approve of his handling of the economy, at 50 percent, has dropped from 61 percent since April. In April, Mr. Obama had a 43-point advantage over Republicans in terms of who would make the right decisions on the economy; that has dropped to a 26-point advantage. Americans think the economy is on the mend, and there has been a 15-point increase, to 36 percent, in the percentage of Americans who said Mr. Obama’s stimulus package has improved the economy.

While there’s potentially problematic news for Obama, the news for Republicans still isn’t good at all:

There is evidence of public distaste with Washington that washes across both parties. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they believed that Republicans in Congress were opposing Mr. Obama’s bill only for political gain; just over half said Democrats in Congress backed the bill for political reasons.

Just 30 percent said they had a favorable view of Republicans in Congress. By contrast, 47 percent said they had a favorable view of Congressional Democrats.

“What I hear from the Republicans is that they’re just against anything the president has to say,” said Matt Lee, 48, a Republican from Kona, Hawaii. “There is just too much division along party lines right now. I don’t think the president wants to hear anything the Republicans want to say, but I trust him more because we need change.”

As James Joyner points out, that 30% Congressional Republican approval rating is essentially where it’s been all year; meaning that the GOP has not really benefited from the decline in support that Obama has suffered over the past several months.

Getting back to health care, though, the poll reveals what could end up being Obama’s biggest political mistake:

The poll suggested that Mr. Obama’s effort to deal with concerns about the health plan has enjoyed, at best, mixed success. In the poll, 55 percent said Mr. Obama had not clearly explained his plans for changing the health care system, and 59 percent said they thought the health care changes under consideration in Congress were confusing.

The fact that so many Americans say they do not know enough about the plan to offer an opinion — 46 percent — shows the risk of the White House’s strategy of not putting forward its own specific bill.

Which seems to reinforce the thought I’ve had before; that Obama’s biggest mistake on health care may turn out to be giving so much control over the agenda to Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and the rest of the Democrats in Congress.