Below The Beltway

It’s not being talked about in the press, but it’s pretty clear that Chrysler is dying:

Rumors, credible rumors, are beginning to circulate in the car industry and the automotive press, that Chrysler may not make it another year primarily due to its falling sales and growing financial losses at partner Fiat.

Chrysler sold a 62,197 cars in September, down 42% from the same month last year. The figure was down from 93,222 in August when traffic to dealers was pushed up by the ”cash for clunkers” program.

Chrysler’s problems may only be beginning and, if so, Fiat, the ”managing partner” among Chrysler’s owners may not be able to keep the American company intact.

Chrysler has operated at a disadvantage to the Japanese for some time. That has been true of all three U.S. car companies. Now that each has restructured, each has more leverage against a lower costs base. That should allow General Motors, Ford (F), and Chrysler to make an operating profit even with domestic light vehicles sales running at a rate of only 10 million a year. But, Chrysler still has disadvatages which start with the age of its fleet and extend to the problem that it no longer has enough market share to cover even a lower cost base.

GM has the capital and the daring to offer its cars for a 60-day test drive. There is some financial risk to the action, but GM has enough new models coming to market that the odds of people turning in cars is relatively small.

GM had a hard September with sales down 45% to 156,673, but the new promotion ought to improve its share in October and November. Ford has demonstrated the ongoing strength of its new model line. In September, Ford’s sales only dropped 5% to 114,655. That means that Ford is picking up market share rapidly and some of that is probably coming at Chrysler’s expense.

The Congressional Oversight Panel has already said taxpayers will not see most of the $81 billion that they put into the American car industry. The $14.3 billion put into Chrysler is more and more likely to be lost completely.

Anyone who claims they’re surprised by this is lying.

H/T: Coyote Blog