It doesn’t look like the surprise award of the Nobel Peace Prize will have a significant impact on President Obama’s approval ratings over the long term.
Rasmussen, for example, found no bounce at all in the approval numbers released yesterday:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 32% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 (see trends).
Forty-three percent (43%) give the President good or excellent marks on national security matters and 30% say he is governing on a bi-partisan basis.
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Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.
Daily updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three day rolling average basis. As a result, today is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to President Obama. The award seems to have had little impact on public opinion among likely voters. His total approval was at 49% just before the award was announced and it is at 49% today.
There does seem to be a slight increase in intensity. Since the prize was awarded, the number who Strongly Approve of the President’s performance has increased by three percentage points and the number who Strongly Disapprove has increased by five. The number with strong opinions on both sides is at the highest level in a month.
Gallup, meanwhile, shows a slight uptick since the award but doesn’t expect it to last:
PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama appears to have gotten a slight bounce in support after he was announced as the Nobel Peace Prize winner on Friday. His 56% job approval rating for the last two Gallup Daily tracking updates is up from a term-low 50% as recently as last week, and 53% in the three days before the Nobel winner was announced.
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It is unclear, however, whether Obama will be able to sustain the positive momentum of the past few days, especially after the president’s and public’s attention turns away from his surprise Nobel Peace Prize win back to the legislative debate over health insurance reform and the administration’s decision about what to do next in Afghanistan. Indeed, after Obama’s approval ratings increased in Friday and Saturday interviewing, Obama’s support in Sunday’s polling was slightly lower.
In fact, odds are the bump will not last, since the improvement in his rating from his term-low 50% early last week has come exclusively among independents and Republicans, who are less likely to stay loyal to the president. Democratic support has not changed after Friday’s Nobel announcement.
This isn’t too surprising. President’s approval ratings and support levels usually go up when the focus is on foreign policy issues as it has been since the prize was announced. Once the topics of discussion switch back to domestic issues in general, and health care specifically, I think you’ll see the numbers going back down to where they’ve been for weeks now.
