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PPP: McDonnell Leads Deeds By Double Digits In Virginia Governor’s Race

Another poll sure to cause a bad day at Deeds for Governor HQ:

Bob McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead over Creigh Deeds in his quest to be Virginia’s next Governor. He now leads 52-40, up from 48-43 three weeks ago.

McDonnell’s standing is largely the result of two things: considerable support from independents and a disengaged Democratic electorate. With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31. And while Barack Obama won Virginia by six points last year, the voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.

That lack of Democratic enthusiasm has been the story for much of the general election campaign. 56% of McDonnell supporters say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting this fall while only 34% of Deeds’ backers share that sentiment.


While they’ve gotten a lot less attention it actually seems that McDonnell’s attacks on Deeds have been more effective. When we first polled the general election in early July 29% of voters in the state had an unfavorable opinion of Deeds. Now 48% do. McDonnell’s negatives have increased only from 32% to 35% during that time. At the start of the campaign they both had a net favorability rating of +19. Now McDonnell’s is +21 and Deeds’ is -7.

Deeds’ difficulties are having implications down the ballot. Ken Cuccinelli leads Steve Shannon 52-37 for Attorney General and Bill Bolling has a 49-39 advantage over Jody Wagner for Lieutenant Governor. Beyond that Republicans lead 46-36 on the generic ballot for the House of Delegates.

Thirteen days out, it’s really looking like these races are over.

3 Responses to “PPP: McDonnell Leads Deeds By Double Digits In Virginia Governor’s Race”

  1. Let's Be Free says:

    Deeds is, in many ways, his own worst enemy. He’s isn’t wise or savvy. His campaign strategy and tactics suggest he would be a lousy governor, even putting philosophical issues aside. His campaign is built around catering to special interests rather than the general public good.

    Deeds attacked McDonnell for being sexist yet lashed out at a young female reporter who had the termity to challenge Deeds on his inconsistent answers.

    And why lead with the thesis issues at all when Deeds knows full well that McDonnell has three daughers who have come or are coming of age? Most anyone who has been around the block a time or two knows that young men with McDonnell’s (now former) attitudes about women wisen up quickly when they are faced with the reality of their little girls growing into young women trying to find their way in the world.

    McDonnell’s oldest daughter was a campaign commercial waiting to happening. Deeds gave McDonnell an opening to very effectively use his telegenic and well spoken family to get out the message. Deeds should have thought a step or two ahead and realized this was coming.

    On transportation issues Deeds catered to his far left supporters in the cored suburbs of Northern Virginia some of whom actually advocate that I66 be shut down inside the Beltway. These supporters have sued to stop improvments on I395. By skewing to these interests Deeds commitment to transportation is generic and not credible. In contrast, McDonnell can look his constituents right in the eye and say he supports improving I95, widening I66 and finishing Metro to Dulles. That’s refreshing and credible.

    McDonnell co-opted the jobs issue. He linked it to taxes early on. Deeds is stuck in the muck playing the blame the jobs game on Bushies.

    As time goes on, it will become incereasingly clear that Obama’s government centric recovery strategy will keep unemployment in the range of ten percent for the foreseeable future.

    Going forward, there are lessons to be learned here by candidates in other races.

  2. The biggest lesson for Virginia Democrats is not to vote for someone just because the Washington Post endorsed them.

    I don’t know that Brian Moran or Terry McAuliffe would have been able to win in this political climate, but they would’ve made it a much closer race.

  3. Let's Be Free says:

    Deeds doubled down on the Post’s endorsement by trusting the Post’s lead on the thesis issue to define his campaign. I agree that Moran (particularly) and McAuliffe would would have been stronger candidates for the Dems, mostly because Deeds is so bad.

    I am kind of amazed how elements on the left seem not to be recognizing now they are in charge that backlash and negativity can no longer be their strategies of choice. This is politics 101. See Newt rise. See Newt fall.

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