With just over a week left until polls open, Bob McDonnell looks to be headed to a substantial victory:
Republican Robert F. McDonnell carries a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds into the final week of the campaign for Virginia governor, according to a new Washington Post poll.
The Republican, briefly buffeted in the polls by voters’ initial reaction to the publication of his 1989 graduate school thesis, has rebounded to big advantages on the top issues, particularly taxes, and is now seen as the more effective leader, more honest and more empathetic.
McDonnell is also buoyed by support outside of Northern Virginia, where he is currently outperforming all other top-of-the-ticket Republican candidates this decade. Statewide, McDonnell now leads Deeds among likely voters by a 55 to 44 percent margin. McDonnell, who narrowly defeated Deeds in the race for attorney general four years ago, has been above 50 percent in all four Post polls in the campaign.
About three in 10 Virginia voters say their vote will be based in part on their perceptions of President Obama, who is scheduled to campaign in Norfolk with Deeds Tuesday. But as many say they will be motivated by their desire to express support for the president as to voice opposition to him, partial evidence that Obama himself may not be able to decisively sway the race.
Seven in 10 say the president — who remains relatively popular with an approval rating of 54 percent among likely voters and 57 percent among all those registered to vote — won’t be a factor in their vote one way or the other. These findings suggest that the Virginia race may not be the early referendum on the Obama presidency that it is often held up to be.
“Sometimes people talk about sending a message — with Virginia being in this odd off-year election cycle,” said Keith Fredlake, 32, of Gainesville, a McDonnell supporter. “But I don’t think so. I don’t think Obama’s really put a lot of stock into Virginia, and I don’t think it will hurt or help.”
The poll shows that Deeds has been unable to shift the dynamics of a race that in recent weeks appeared to be slipping away from him. Despite a concerted effort to reverse a widespread voter perception that his campaign has been largely negative, more than six in 10 in the new poll see the Democrat as running a mainly negative effort. By contrast, most see McDonnell’s campaign as a predominantly positive one.
Deeds has also been unable to excite his supporters and close the dramatic enthusiasm gap McDonnell has held from the outset. About a quarter of Deeds’s voters say they are supporting him “not too” or “not at all” enthusiastically. More than nine in 10 of those who back McDonnell are “very” or “fairly” enthusiastic about the Republican.
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McDonnell holds double-digit advantages when it comes to dealing with the economy (plus 17 percentage points), transportation (16 points), taxes (25 points) and has overtaken Deeds as the one more trusted to handle issues of special concern to women (7 points). On taxes, which has been a focal point of the campaign in recent weeks, McDonnell has stretched his lead significantly, and now holds a better than 2 to 1 lead over Deeds among independent voters.
Deeds has said he would be willing to sign a tax increase to pay for road improvements if approved by a bipartisan majority in the General Assembly, a prospect opposed by 55 percent of likely voters, including a growing number outside of Northern Virginia. McDonnell and the Republican Governors Association have spent millions on what now appears to have been a devastating ad campaign about Deeds’s stance– and over his failure to clearly explain his position on the issue while answering questions from reporters following a debate in Fairfax in September.
“I do think we need someone new in there who won’t continually raise taxes,” said Richmond resident Janice Baldwin, 57, who is voting for McDonnell. “Taxes eat us out of house and home. Every time you turn around, if you’re not taxed for one thing , you’re taxed for another.”
Overall, most voters see McDonnell as “about right” ideologically, while nearly half now see Deeds as “too liberal.”
Game, Set, Match to the Virginia GOP.
