Yesterday we had a poll sponsored by the Club For Growth and conducted by a Republican polling firm that purported to show Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman ahead of the Democratic and Republican candidates in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
Today, we’ve got another poll sponsored by a conservative group and conducted by a Republican polling firm showing the same thing:
For the second time in two days, a poll released by a conservative group finds Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman leading the Nov. 3 special election race for New York’s 23rd District. Neighborhood Research polled the district for Minuteman PAC, the political arm of the Minuteman Movement, which has endorsed Hoffman and is airing ads on his behalf.
Hoffman leads Democrat Bill Owens by 5 points and GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava by 20 points.
Hoffman 34
Owens 29
Scozzafava 14
Und 23The poll was taken Oct. 25-26 of 366 likely voters.
As with the CFG poll, the margin of error here is 5.6%.
Not surprisingly, the conservative blogosphere — especially The Other McCain and Gateway Pundit — is touting this as yet more evidence of a Hoffman surge.
And, just as with yesterday’s poll, there’s reason to doubt it.
Once again, we’ve got a sponsor and polling company with professional bias.
Once again, we’ve got a small sample size.
Once again, we’ve got a margin of error that essentially makes the race statistically tied at best.
Once again, we’ve got an unusually high number of undecided voters that make any effort to determine what the poll really means impossible.
So, don’t rely on this poll for anything folks.
