It looks like the national attention being given to the insurgency candidacy of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is having an impact:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/19-21 results)
Scozzafava (R) 21 (30)
Owens (D) 33 (35)
Hoffman (C) 32 (23)Scozzafava is down nine, and Hoffman is up nine. While Scozzafava got 46 percent of Republicans a week ago, she’s down to 34 percent this week. Hoffman is up to 41 percent of Republicans this week, compared to 27 percent last week.
What’s more, we asked Hoffman supporters who’d they support if Hoffman wasn’t in the race, and 6 percent said Scozzafava, 5 percent said Owens, 28 percent wouldn’t vote, and 61 percent would be undecided. I’m not sure what to make of that
Sounds to me like a Perot factor there. These are people who otherwise wouldn’t be voting but for the Hoffman candidacy.
The more interesting question, and the one that apparently wasn’t asked, is who would Scozzafava supporters vote for if their candidate wasn’t in the race ?
There are still 14% of the voters who are undecided according to this poll, and if Scozzafava continues to fade her supporters will either become disillusioned or look elsewhere. My guess is that enough of them will go for Owens to give him the seat.
