Only three days before Election Day, a stunning development:
Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.
The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.
“Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community,” Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. “It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.”
One of the reasons for her decision, no doubt, is a new Siena Institute poll showing that she has fallen to a distant third as Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has surged into a statistical tie with the Democratic candidate:
A Siena Research Institute poll released this morning shows Bill Owens, the Democrats’ candidate and Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, in a statistical dead heat with three days left before Election Day.
The poll, which tapped 704 likely voters via telephone from Tuesday to Thursday, suggests Republican Dede Scozzafava is too far back to win.
Mr. Owens has support from 36 percent of likely voters, with Mr. Hoffman garnering 35 percent support. Ms. Scozzafava has support from 20 percent of those polled.
“Unfortunately for Assemblywoman Scozzafava, this has become a two person race between Owens and Hoffman,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg in a statement. “She now has the support of only one in five voters, having gone from 35 percent support to 20 percent support since the beginning of the month.”
Mr. Owens has shown measured increases from Siena’s two previous polls, but Mr. Hoffman’s support is skyrocketing.
Excepting Democrats, Mr. Hoffman has “picked up considereable steam” in almost every demographic, the pollster said. He’s picked up 10 points in Madison, Oneida and Oswego counties, 12 points in the Clinton/Essex/Franklin/Fulton/Hamilton region and 15 points in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.
The question now is what happens to Scozzafava’s voters, not to mention the 9% of the voters who are apparently still undecided. The most logical assumption, of course, is that most of them will vote for Hoffman over Owens, but since it’s way too late to poll this race again, we’re just going to have to wait to see what happens.
October 31st, 2009 at 7:25 pm
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