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Is Charlie Crist The Next Establishment GOPer To Fall ?

by @ 4:13 pm on November 1, 2009. Filed under 2010 Elections, Congress, Elections, Political Parties, Politics, Republicans

This morning on ABC’s This Week, George Will predicted that Florida Governor Charlie Crist will lose the Republican nomination for Senate to insurgent candidate Marco Rubio:

Apropos of that comment, there’s a new poll from the St. Petersburg Times showing that Crist’s popularity is falling:

A new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds only 42 percent of likely Florida voters think Charlie Crist is doing a good or excellent job as governor, by far the worst approval rating of Crist’s 34 months in office. Thirty-nine percent said he was doing a fair job and 16 percent poor.

Even most fellow Republicans don’t like the job he’s doing. That 51 percent of them rate Crist’s performance as fair or poor is particularly ominous for someone facing an aggressive U.S. Senate primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami.

At the same time, though, Crist still seems to be holding onto his lead over Rubio:

In the Senate race, the poll found 50 percent of Republicans backing Crist, 28 percent Rubio, and 22 percent undecided. Even little-known and 22 points behind, however, Rubio poses a real threat to the self-described “people’s governor” no longer appreciated so much by people who overwhelmingly see Florida headed in the wrong direction.

Interestingly enough, a recent Rasmussen poll suggests that either Crist or Rubio would do well against the expected Democratic candidate:

Both men seeking the Republican nomination to become Florida’s next U.S. senator lead their likely Democratic opponent by double digits.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of Florida voters shows Governor Charlie Crist leading Representative Kendrick Meek by a 46% to 34% margin. In August, Crist led by 19 and in June he was ahead by 21.

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads Meek by a similar margin, 46% to 31%. In August, Rubio led by 13 percentage points.

I’m not sure I agree with Will’s prediction just yet, but a Rubio victory certainly seems more possible today than it was a few months ago, and there nine months to go before the August 31, 2010 primary date, so keep an eye on this one.

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3 Responses to “Is Charlie Crist The Next Establishment GOPer To Fall ?”

  1. Bill Jempty says:

    Meek doesn’t have a prayer. His voting record is as liberal as outgoing congressman Robert Wexler. Also he doesn’t have his mother’s help* this time in earning a trip to Washington.

    Florida doesn’t elect people with a Meek’s like voting record to statewide office.

    *- In 2002, Carrie Meek, announced her retirement less than two weeks before the filing deadline for the fall primary. It was just good luck her state legislator son was able to file so quickly.

  2. Tom Burns says:

    “Is Charlie Crist The Next Establishment GOPer To Fall?”

    I hope so. Rubio needs to win this thing, he just needs to make the right arguments.

    Crist has been roasting in the slow-cooker for too long.

  3. Matt says:

    Rubio is an insurgent? Doesn’t that mean terrorist? ;)

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