With the caveat that any polling of this race after what’s happened this weekend is tricky, Public Policy Polling seems to show that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is headed for a huge lead:
Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.
Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. Poll respondents Saturday afternoon/evening and early Sunday afternoon were informed that Scozzafava had dropped out but that her name would still be on the ballot. During that period of time Hoffman led Owens 51-34 with Scozzafava’s share going down to 12%. After Scozzafava announced she was endorsing Owens the remaining Sunday respondents were informed of that and the race showed a little tightening with Hoffman up 52-38 on Owens and Scozzafava’s share dropping to 7%.
The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava’s actions over the course of the weekend.
Anything could happen, of course, but right now it’s looking really good for Hoffman.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:07 pm
[...] Scozzafava no longer clogging the vote as a Republican-In-Name-Only, Hoffman has a huge lead. In fact, he apparently had a huge lead regardless of WHAT Scozzafava did: In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with [...]