Below The Beltway

The exit polls coming out of today’s elections seem to have messages for Democrats and Republicans alike.

First, for Republicans there’s the warning not to assume that the prospect of imminent victory is a referendum on the Obama Presidency:

[M]ajorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent).

Among Corzine supporters in New Jersey, 38 percent said one reason for their vote was to express support for Mr. Obama, while 39 percent of Christie voters said it was to express opposition to Mr. Obama.

In Virginia, among backers of the Democratic candidate, Creigh Deeds, 38 percent said their vote was in part to support the president, while 42 percent of McDonnell voters said their vote was in part to oppose the president.

At the same time, Democrats are warned that the economy is the top issue in voters minds, and that’s likely to remain the case for the next 12 months:

A vast 89 percent in New Jersey and 85 percent in Virginia said they’re worried about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year; 56 percent and 52 percent, respectively, said they’re “very” worried about it.

Voters who expressed the highest levels of economic discontent heavily favored the Republican candidates in both states – underscoring the challenge Obama and his party may face in 2010 if economic attitudes don’t improve. The analogy is to 1994, when nearly six in 10 voters said the economy was in bad shape, and they favored the out-of-power Republicans by 26 points, helping the GOP to a 52-seat gain and control of Congress for the first time in 42 years.

In Virginia on Tuesday, voters who were “very” worried about the economy concern supported the Republican winner, Bob McDonnell by a wide margin, 76-24 percent. In New Jersey, while the gap wasn’t quite so broad, voters who were most worried about the economy backed Republican Chris Christie by 59-36 percent.

McDonnell also won those who called the economy the single most important issue in their vote, by just 14 points; but incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine won economy voters by a wide margin in New Jersey, suggesting some fight on the issue for Democrats in 2010. Corzine, though, badly lost voters who were focused on property taxes, and they were nearly as numerous as economy voters in his state.

If the economy continues to flounder over the next year, and, at the very least, it’s clear that unemployment will remain high for the foreseeable future between now and Election Day 2010, then that will be bad news for incumbents, and especially incumbent Democrats.

It’s going to be an interesting year.