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Final 2009 Election Polls And Predictions

So, here we go, my predictions for tonight.

First, Virginia:

This one has been over for weeks. McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli, will win by double digits. And I’m making a slightly wild-assed guess that Republicans will pick up a net 7 seats in the House of Delegates, which sounds small but is a big deal. If Democratic turnout is as low as some think it might be, the HoD gain will be larger.

New Jersey:

Based on the polling, it looks like Chris Christie is surging and, if the Republicans who’ve been saying that they were going to vote for Chris Daggett come home, he might just pull it off. But, this is New Jersey and the Democratic machine, both in northern areas like Essex and Hudson Counties, and in southern areas like Camden and Trenton, is strong. If Corzine pulls it off, I won’t be surprised at all, but I’ll call it Christie by a razor-thin margin.

New York 23rd Congressional District:

Given the rapid pace of developments over the weekend it’s hard to say for sure what’s going on here. The high number of undecideds in yesterday’s Sienna Poll, if accurate, means that almost anything could happen. However, given the fact that this is an historically Republican district and that Hoffman’s surge didn’t seem to letup as we got closer to Election Day, I’m going to say Hoffman wins easily.

Finally, a race that I haven’t blogged about much this season, the referendum on the Maine ballot to overturn the state legislature’s legalization of same-sex marriage:

I got caught on the wrong end of a call on this issue last year when I predicted that Proposition 8 would be defeated in California.

This year, though, I think we’ll see a state Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage defeated at the ballot box for the first time.

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