Call it a post-election 2009 bounce if you want, but it appears that GOP fortunes may have turned around a little bit:
PRINCETON, NJ — Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup’s generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.
The Nov. 5-8 update comes just after Republican victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, which saw Republicans replace Democrats as governors of those states.
As was the case in last Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections, independents are helping the Republicans’ cause. In the latest poll, independent registered voters favor the Republican candidate by 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain similar loyalty from their bases, with 91% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.
The overall results would predict a likely strong Republican showing if the House elections were held today.
The biggest change over the past several months, and the one that may prove to be most significant if the trend is sustained, is the extent to which Independents have moved into the Republican camp:
The generic ballot poll results are similar in the latest Rasmussen Poll, and Pollster shows a clear move in favor the GOP:
Whether the trend continues, only time will tell, of course.
November 11th, 2009 at 9:13 am
historically, the GOP has better turnout than the dems, so if the GOP is able to keep a lead of about 2 points with registered voters it is probably about 6-7 points in likely voters, which would translate into a pretty signifigant gain in the House. Gallup did a good piece on thsi recently: http://www.gallup.com/poll/124010/Generic-Ballot-Provides-Clues-2010-Vote.aspx?CSTS=alert
November 11th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Two points:
1. It’s way early, and it’s probably not a good idea to peak too early; and
2. Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
November 11th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
Obama’s foreign policy failures, and weak on defense stance are starting to catch up with him. Not too mention his absolutely horrendouse response to Ft. Hood Terrorist attack.
He’s starting to get the weak-kneed Girlie Man reputation of Carter, hamstrung by the 1979 Iranian Hostage crisis.