Below The Beltway

Bill Owens has been sworn in, and he’s already cast a decisive vote on the Health Care Reform Bill, but the race for New York’s 23rd Congressional District isn’t over:

It’s mathematically possible that Douglas L. Hoffman could pass Rep. William L. Owens when all absentee ballots in the 23rd Congressional District race are counted, although the Conservative Party candidate’s deficit is likely too large to overcome.

Mr. Owens has garnered 68,963 votes, according to the most recent unofficial results in the 11-county district, and leads Mr. Hoffman by 3,176 votes. There are at least 7,178 absentee ballots districtwide that have been received by elections officials and will be opened Tuesday. That count likely will take at least three days.

Of course, it’s an uphill fight and unlikely that Hoffman can win this for some simple reason:

When the ballots were sent out, the race also included Republican Assemblywoman Dierdre K. Scozzafava. After suspending her campaign with three days remaining in the race, Ms. Scozzafava still earned 6,903 votes, or 4.9 percent of the total vote cast on Election Day.

If Ms. Scozzafava takes only that same percentage of the absentee vote, many of which were returned before she withdrew from the race, Mr. Hoffman will need 4,998 votes, or 69.6 percent of the absentee ballots, to Mr. Owens’s 25.5 percent in order to come out on top.

In retrospect, though, it’s clear that Hoffman made a strategic error on Election night when he conceded the race, because that’s what gave the Democrats the excuse to get Owens sworn in immediately. Had Hoffman not conceded, they would have had to wait until the race was certified.